Once again, an unfortunate confluence of events has left the pig sector in a precarious and uncomfortable position, with no clear sign of a route out, at this moment.
Pigs are backed up on farms and getting heavier, but a lack of demand means processors don’t want the extra pigs and prices are falling, while input costs, driven by the Iranian war, rise.
It is impossible to gauge the scale of the backlog, and we do not appear to be at the levels seen in 2021 and 2022. But it is substantial, sustained and stubbornly unshifting – with some producers feeling it very much more than others.
The causes
Unlike the last backlog, where the big drivers included Brexit and Covid-related labour shortages in abattoirs, and processor and retailer behaviour came under intense scrutiny, this is largely about factory problems and an imbalance of supply and demand.
According to those closely involved in the trade, at least one of the big integrators and some producers put down more sows last year in response to sustained good prices and a decent outlook. Some of the big processors have, after all, been giving clear signals they want to process more British pork from their own herds and independents.
This has combined with improved summer and autumn breeding productivity and growth rates, helped by better weather, to cause a surge in overall numbers.
The situation was exacerbated by a major Pilgrim’s Europe factory breakdown in the autumn, with more factory stoppages in the run-up to and since Christmas, affecting most processors. This led to pigs being rolled week after week and a backlog developing, which has proved impossible to shift.
Defra’s March UK clean pig slaughterings statistics show a notable 7.9% year-on-year increase, with pigmeat production at 89,000t – 11% higher than March 2025 – on the back of higher carcase weights.
Over the first quarter of 2026, pigmeat production was up 5.3% year on year, at 256,800t, with clean pig slaughterings, at 2.6 million, 2.3% higher than over Q1 2025.
AHDB pointed out that Q1 production was 0.5% higher than Q4 2025 levels, despite the typically higher seasonal demand seen in the final quarter of the year.
Average carcase weights, at 94.2kg, were 3kg higher than in Q1, as the backlogs create heavier pigs, which in an unwanted cycle push up meat supplies, further dampening the market and reducing demand – making the backlog even harder to shift.
“Ongoing reports of processing backlogs and pigs being carried over week to week suggest that weights are unlikely to fall sharply in the near term,” AHDB said.
Flat demand
As we entered the new year, our Tribune market insiders were hoping that a pick-up in demand in the spring and a recovering EU market would see pig prices start to rise and the backlog come down.
That has not materialised. After a welcome increase in retail sales in 2025, largely on the back of soaring beef prices, data from Worldpanel by Numerator UK for the 12 weeks ended March 22 showed UK retail pigmeat volumes were down 2.3%, with spend down 0.6%. The better news is that primary pigmeat volumes, where the UK is stronger, were up 1.1% during the period.
With some changes in contracts among the big the processors to add into the mix, the reality is that demand is currently nowhere near sufficient to meet the increased volumes available.
EU freefall
Meanwhile, in Europe, prices were already in freefall before Spain’s African swine fever outbreak in late November created an EU-wide oversupply and accelerated the price decline. In February, the gap between the UK and EU reference prices reached a record 70p – three times typical levels.
However, suggestions that this has resulted in a flood of imported cheaper product is not backed by official HMRC data for January and February, which shows a 4% year-on-year fall in import volumes, along with a 6% reduction in value.
The latest AHDB Porkwatch data continues to show historically strong retail support for British pigmeat, with, for example, 88% of fresh and frozen pork on display labelled British in March.
There is a sense among some involved in the pig trade, however, that pigmeat buyers have used the availability of cheaper EU pork as ‘leverage’ to maintain the downward pressure on prices. While EU prices have partially recovered, they have flatlined of late.
Addressing the problem
British Meat Processors Association chief executive John Powell said: “There are still some consequences from the maintenance that took place at end the of last year that closed at least one plant, while others have had problems. So, there is still some stock being rolled over.
“Processors are working with producers and producer groups as best they can to try to get back to some form of regularity, but obviously the system keeps going and it is very hard to pick up pigs that have been lost because of a closure for a while. Everyone is very aware of it and doing their best to manage it.”
Some processors have been putting on extra Saturday kills, although it has not been feasible to do so every week because of the unwillingness of staff to work extra weekends.
There has also been something of a vicious circle in that heavier pigs are putting more pressure on plants, resulting in more breakdowns and stoppages, according to one industry figure.
He suggested that the extra Saturday kills are simply making up for factory breakdowns, rather than making any progress at all in eating into the backlog.
Meanwhile, some producers are reacting by trimming their herds and sending more sows to slaughter. The Defra statistics show UK sow and boar slaughter rose by 3.6% – 1,800 head – year on year in Q1.
The UK’s specialist sow plants have put on extra kills, which are easier to hold on a Saturday with less processing required, to accommodate this.
But this, in turn, is making even more pork available in a market where processors don’t want it or have outlets for it, putting even more pressure on prices. This is particularly true for sows, with surpluses at home and in Europe forcing prices down in April.
“At the moment, with EU prices stalling, there doesn’t seem to be a lot of light at the end of the tunnel – and producer confidence is low. They want to invest in their businesses, but their returns are diminishing,” the industry insider said.
Farmer perspective
Pig contracts generally include some flexibility on both sides, and the current situation inevitably means producers and processors want different things – putting strain on all sides and those in the middle.
It has all added up to some more pain on farms, with some supply chains much worse hit than others. Similarly, different pricing arrangements mean those on longer-term contracts are relatively immune to the price dips biting others.
For some of the farmers worst affected, the situation has once again raised questions about their future in the sector. Others remain hopeful of a turnaround in the not-too-distant future.
“We have been running at about half a week behind contracted numbers since around Christmas, which has meant a continuous juggling process across our sites to make sure that weights are kept under control and turnaround deadlines are achieved,” one multi-site producer told
Pig World.
“The two main problems in our part of the supply chain have been factory breakdowns and lacklustre demand. It seems the wider British industry is still being adversely affected by European product coming into the country at low prices.
“Communication from our customer has been good. They have been endeavouring to catch up the small backlog we have, and I am hopeful that a tightening of supply in May/June will help alleviate the current issues. I hope I am not being overly optimistic!”
Processor view
Pig World asked the three big processors for their take. Graham Wilkinson, Sofina Foods group agriculture director, said: “While there is some wider industry pressure, our experience at this point in the year is consistent with normal seasonal patterns.
“Bank holidays typically create a short-term pinch point, which we plan for and we are working closely with our supply base to manage this carefully, including the addition of extra shift capacity where appropriate.
“As always, our focus remains on delivering for our customers, supporting our farmers, maintaining high animal welfare standards and ensuring throughput across our sites remains both sustainable and well managed.”
Cranswick and Pilgrim’s Europe declined to comment.