As I returned home from this year’s party conference season, two things really stuck out in my mind. First, how ridiculously long it has felt this year, but more importantly, how radically different the political outlook appears compared to this time last year.
In 2025, Keir Starmer successfully fought off an attempted coup from Andy Burnham, Kemi Badenoch was similarly facing off a potential challenge on her leadership, and Nigel Farage was going from strength to strength. In 2026, it’s all change once again.
Labour
Prime minister Andy Burnham took to the stage at the Labour Party Conference in Liverpool to deliver a masterclass in leaders’ speeches. Whether you loved or loathed it, it was the speech that got everyone talking.
The slogan ‘Hope Again’ was everywhere and that was exactly what the prime minister needed to do – not only restoring confidence among the party faithful, but also with the public at large.
Despite the large amount of positivity at the conference, the party did not leave Liverpool without its challenges, including some of the noise around plans to cut the pensions triple lock, proposals for unprecedented electoral reform and social care changes that will almost inevitably require tax rises.
The fringe circuit was awash with useful policy discussion and events, with productive discussions on the future of UK agriculture, food security, animal welfare and biosecurity. The whole event was substantially more positive than last year.
The Conservatives
The Conservative Party Conference in Birmingham was also chalk and cheese compared to 2025. This time last year, the leadership challenger sharks were circling Tory leader Kemi Badenoch as she struggled to shore up confidence from her party.
Fast forward 12 months and this couldn’t be further from the case. For the first time in a number of years, it felt as though the Conservative Party was joined up and pulling in one direction.
This may in large part be owing to the fact that many of their dissenters have now left the party for Reform UK.
Her net approval rating is now +2, up 34 points from last year’s con-ference, and this has started to trickle through to wider support for the party. Its voting intention has now edged up to 21-23% from 17-18% over the past 12 months. However, they are still a long way behind Labour, which has gained 10% since the start of the year to comfortably lead in the polls.
Reform UK
Reform UK has continued to see hugely impressive electoral gains this year, becoming the official opposition in the Senedd in Wales, the joint-largest opposition party in Holyrood, as well as picking up almost 1,500 council seats in England.
Despite these positive results, the continued growth of the party and an expanded conference, the annual bash at the NEC was not quite the victory lap the party leadership would have been hoping for.
The whole thing was overshadowed by the Channel 4 exposé alleging breaches in electoral laws around donations and transparency in polling. Nigel Farage’s leadership speech was disrupted by numerous hecklers, and the party’s Welsh leader was arrested not long after the conference.
This has translated into a dip in the polls, with the party losing circa 10% points over the past year, and now jostling with the Conservatives for second place and the leading ‘party of the right’.
The Lib Dems
The only UK party that appears to look much the same one year on is the Liberal Democrats. Its position in the polls remains static, or slightly down, with a fairly buoyant membership, although questions on whether Ed Davey remains the right man to lead the party into the next election were evident in Brighton, with some members wanting a more radical approach.
The main catalyst was Mr Davey’s response to the prime minister’s triple lock announcement, as well as questions over the party’s perceived pro-EU USP.
No formal leadership challenge is underway, but so far two frontbench spokespeople have resigned and only 22 of their 71 MPs have publicly backed Mr Davey.
Where next?
So where does this all leave us now? By the time you read this, we will have had another Halloween Budget, which will help set the tone.
There continues to be speculation about an early general election, despite assurances from the prime minister that he has no such plans. The outcome, whenever it happens, remains both incredibly murky and carries a high degree of error, with no party ultimately coming out with an overall majority.
For now, however, both the prime minister and leader of the opposition will be pleased with their respective conference outings. Each achieved what they set out to do and established a distinct offering and vision for their parties. The question now will be whether public opinion moves with them.