Global pork prices remain weak due to stagnant demand and oversupply, although the market is adjusting, according to RaboResearch’s Q3 global pork update.
Sentiment is described as subdued across the major producing regions, with prices generally lower than previous years. “The key reason is the excess supply, although the causes vary by region,” the update states.
In Europe, pork prices remain low as Spain’s exports continue to be constrained by its ASF status, leaving a surplus of pork to be absorbed within the wider EU market, alongside higher pork production, which is further pressuring prices.
In China, supply has expanded due to capacity expansion and productivity gains over the past five years, while in North America supply is ‘modestly higher’ than last year and demand remains weak.
Productivity improvements are playing an important role in this supply growth, with producers focusing on cost and efficiency, according RaboResearch’s experts.
Looking ahead
It forecasts that the ongoing decline in China’s sow herd is expected to lead to reduced supply, starting in mid-late Q3, although any price recovery in China is likely to be modest given the ongoing weak demand. North America will also likely see some improvement in Q4, if not before that.
Trade is expected to remain stable in the second half of 2026, although structural shifts are ongoing. “Export patterns are shifting, as Europe’s market share has declined following disease issues and weaker demand from China, and Brazil has expanded share rapidly,” the update adds.
“Meanwhile, import patterns are also evolving, with Mexico and the Philippines significantly increasing imports and China reducing volume.”
The report also highlights how trade remains vulnerable to disease developments, geopolitical uncertainties and trade policy adjustments.
The Philippines officially lifted a nationwide ban on pork imports from Spain, while China’s antidumping duties on EU pork imports, combined with the excessive supply in China, resulted in a decline of 29% in shipmetnts in the first five months of 2026.
“All of these developments suggest trade volatility will continue in 2H 2026,” the update warns.