The OECD and FAO have jointly published the latest report on the World Agricultural Outlook for 2020-2029 which shows that global pork production is due to be back in growth from 2021.
AHDB analyst Bethan Wilkins reported that for pig meat, although prices are expected to remain high over the next decade, this will still be a decline in “real terms” when compared with 2019, and that increasing supplies, and the extent of ongoing Chinese import demand, will be influential in shaping this trend.
Pig meat production is expected to rise by about 16% over the decade overall. Production in China is projected to return to 2017 levels in 2025/2026 and continue steady growth over the remainder of the period.
“The recovery from African Swine Fever in Asian countries is responsible for much of the pig meat production growth forecast,” Ms Wilkins explains. “Production is also expected to rise in Brazil and the US, however a 3% decline is projected for the EU, due to a mix of environmental and public concerns.”
In regards to global trade, Chinese pork imports remain above 2017 levels throughout the outlook period. However, 2020 is the peak, with demand expected to fall back, with 2029 levels predicated to be 36% down on 2019.
“This means global import demand also falls in the first part of the outlook period,” Wilkins adds. “Pig meat is expected to lose out to poultry in the EU, which is cheaper and perceived to be healthier.”