The EU pig market is set to remain under pressure in the short-term but radical changes potentially coming to the Danish pig sector could alter the picture in the longer-term, according to analysis by AHDB.
Prices and production
European pig prices continue to weaken. With the EU Grade S reference pig price falling to 134.92p/kg equivalent for the week ending July 19, its sixth consecutive weekly fall, the gap between EU and UK prices widened beyond 50.2p, an increase of 12p since the start of May.
Prices across most EU nations are now back at, or below, the lows recorded in January and February. The Danish reference price lost 18p equivalent in the month to July 19 to average 112.62p/kg, its lowest level since March 2022. The German price lost 10p over the period while Spain lost just 2p. France bucked the trend, gaining 4p.
“European pig prices continue to be weighed upon by a greater pork supply and subdued consumer demand,” AHDB said.
Selected European grade S reference pig prices (p/kg). Source: Eurostat)
Q1 EU27 pigmeat production stood at 5.8 million tonnes, 2.7% up year on year. Spain (+5%), Poland (+7%) and Denmark (+9%) recorded notable increases, while production was steadier in France (+1%), Belgium and Germany. The Netherlands experienced the largest reduction among the major producing countries, with output falling by 8% YoY.
Pig meat production of select EU27 countries Q1 2024–2026. Source: Eurostat
Higher production levels were driven by increases in EU clean pig slaughter, up 2% YoY to 59m head and average EU carcase weights, which gained 0.3% (0.26 kg) to average 98.43kg.
“While heatwaves had reportedly eased some supply pressure in recent weeks, supply generally has grown due to improved productivity and ASF-related export restrictions,” the AHDB analysis said.
“Market reports suggest cold stores are plentiful which is subduing demand for slaughter pigs. The summer holiday period is expected to continue to weigh on demand.”
The piglet trade is weak, with finished market losses deterring producers from restocking. Hot weather has compounded this by disrupting piglet exports. The average European piglet price stood at €42.36/head in the week beginning July 6, 40% below a year ago.
Trade
Q1 EU pig meat export volumes remained relatively steady in the first quarter of 2026, totalling 1.04mt, including offal.
Q1 2026, EU exports of pig meat (including offal). Source: Eurostat compiled by Trade Data Monitor LLC
Spanish and German exports remained strong, each up 2% YoY, while Danish exports grew by 10%, boosted by intra-EU and Asian (excluding China) trade. This pushed it above the Netherlands to be the EU’s third largest exporter for the year-to-date, as Dutch volumes fell by 6% to 365,600 tonnes, primarily on intra-EU and Chinese losses.
China remained the EU’s largest export destination overall, but shipments declined by 20% YoY, reflecting ongoing anti-dumping measures, weaker market conditions and focus on market protection.
The UK remained the EU’s second-largest export destination, but shipments declined by 4% (11,100 tonnes) YoY.
“The significant price differential during the early part of 2026 did not translate into increased imports, signalling domestic support for British product,” AHDB noted.
Q1 EU pig meat imports stood at 36,000 tonnes, up 7% YoY according to Eurostat data. The UK remained the largest individual supplier, with volumes up YoY (26,000t recorded for the first quarter of 2026.
Looking ahead
Several factors are likely to influence the direction of the European pork market over the coming months, according to AHDB, including the new Danish government’s proposed agricultural reforms.
These include measures aimed at improving environmental sustainability, such as introducing a carbon tax on livestock by 2030, increasing land dedicated to wildlife, and encouraging greater domestic self-sufficiency. Proposed welfare changes, including increasing the minimum weaning age from three to four weeks, phasing out tail docking and phasing out confinement systems, could also increase production costs and reduce overall output.
“Any reduction in production or exports could have implications for key markets including Germany, Poland and China. While these changes may present challenges for European supply chains, they could create opportunities for UK producers if buyers seek alternative sources of pork,” AHDB said.
It highlighted disease as another key risk. Although the African Swine Fever outbreak in Spain has been largely contained and remains confined to wild boar, recent outbreaks in domestic pigs in Hungary and a large commercial farm in Poland highlight the continued threat posed by ASF across Europe, it noted
“In the short term, however, the European market is expected to remain under pressure. Current oversupply, combined with relatively subdued consumer demand, is likely to keep downward pressure on pig prices,” the summary concluded.