Global grain supply & demand looks “generally comfortable”

World cereal supply and demand balance in the 2015/16 marketing season is likely to remain in a “generally comfortable situation” according the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).

“While world cereal production is expected to fall below last year’s record, supplies will be almost sufficient to meet the projected demand,” said FAO, adding that only a small reduction in global inventories will be required by the end of the season.

In relation to 2015/16 world cereal utilisation, FAO, commenting in its latest Crop Prospects and Food Situation report, said it expected global utilisation to approach 2,530 million tonnes. While this is 6m tonnes down from the previous forecast, it’s still 31m tonnes above 2014/15 usage.

Looking solely at the feed utilisation of cereals, the report’s projected total of 904m tonnes is 6.4m tonnes higher than FAO’s previous forecast and 1.8% above feed usage in 2014/15, increases due largely to “higher forecasts for feed use in China”.

The report also examines the prediction of a strong El Niño effect persisting into early 2016, commenting that El Niño-related dry weather patterns have already “adversely impacted” production in parts of Asia, Central America and the Caribbean.

“The expected prevalence and continuation of El Niño-associated weather patterns into 2016 have raised alarms in many parts of the world where the cropping season has started or is about to start,” FAO added.

See full report

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