EU, US and Canadian pig producers are “best positioned” to gain from “China’s Incredible Shrinking Hog Herd” according to a new report, by that name, issued by Rabobank.
Forecasting that an “astonishing drop” in Chinese growing and breeding pig numbers will “impact” the entire global pork market throughout in the remainder of 2015 and into 2016, Rabobank says the approaching surge in pork trade could not come at a better time.
“Chinese pork production is forecast to plummet by 3.7 million tonnes (6.5%) to 53 million tonnes in 2015,” said the Dutch-based international bank, adding that the ramifications of this are just now being felt globally.
“To put this change into perspective: the decline of nearly 100 million head in China’s growing pig herd and 10 million in its breeding herd is equivalent to the US, Canadian and Mexican pork sectors all disappearing from global supply in a span of less than two years,” said Rabobank animal protein analyst, William Sawyer, one of the new report’s authors.
Forecasting that this will create a 600,000 tonne increase in imports in the second half of 2015, Mr Sawyer said that this would produce “very attractive” export opportunities at a time when the global pigmeat sector was “under pressure”.
“Capitalising on the opportunity will require processors and traders who have the right product at a competitive price,” he said, adding that success would come to those who can deliver in the coming months and who can readily mobilise their supply chain.