The global animal protein industry, including the pork sector, is set to experience a slowdown in production growth in 2026, driven by both cyclical and structural factors, according to RaboResearch’s Global Protein Outlook for 2026.
While seafood and poultry will lead growth, pork and beef production will contract amid challenges from disease outbreaks, trade disruptions, and sustainability pressures, demanding strategic adaptation and technological integration from industry players, the report predicts.
The forecast pork and beef contraction would mark the first reduction in global terrestrial species output in six years. The report suggestes the slowdown is influenced by both cyclical factors, such as shifts in North American and Brazilian cattle markets, and structural factors, including China’s efforts to rebalance its pork market.
“While we expect feed costs to remain steady, lower protein supplies, rising volatility and trade costs, and disease pressure will weigh on margins,” said Éva Gocsik, Global Strategist Animal Protein for RaboResearch.
Processors may face ongoing challenges around capacity utilization, as well as trade disruptions resulting from tariffs and other protectionist measures. All of this could raise costs, pressure demand, and ultimately squeeze margins. “In both mature and developing markets, a focus on increasing efficiency and productivity will be critical at the farm and processor level,” she added.
Disease disruption
The report highlights how diseases such as African swine fever and avian influenza continue to disrupt trade, squeeze margins and pressuredproductivity. These challenges are, however, driving greater adoption of biosecurity measures and an increased focus on new approaches to managing disease pressure, although implementation remains complex.
Another factor affecting the key protein sectors is the deceration of global gross domestic product growth projected is pushing consumers to become increasingly price-sensitive, altering their consumption patterns. “Price pressures within animal protein categories may lead consumers to trade down or switch between proteins, while consumers seeking protein-rich foods will potentially boost animal protein demand,” Ms Gocsik added.
Resilient global trade
Despite disruptions, animal protein trade has shown resilience, with strategic front-loading, like shipments of Brazilian beef into the US, helping to sustain volumes amid volatility and shifting tariffs that are reshaping global flows. Geopolitical tensions and evolving policies will continue to influence trade, but new trade agreements may provide a boost, the report adds. .
Regional outlooks
Europe: Pork production growth will continue at a slower rate, with poultry production rebounding despite avian flu risks. Beef production will stabilise, though supply remains tight.
China: Pork production will decline due to herd contraction, while poultry output slows as production growth outpaces demand.
North America: Pork production growth will be constrained by disease and limited sow herd expansion. Broiler production will grow due to lower feed costs, while beef production will fall as the cow herd transitions from liquidation to rebuilding.
Brazil: Beef, pork, and chicken exports are heading toward a new record, with lower feed prices boosting domestic competitiveness.
Southeast Asia: Herd rebuilding will drive pork production growth, but disease remains a challenge. The poultry industry is set for strong growth, supported by export demand.
Australia & New Zealand: High cattle inventories will maintain elevated Australian beef production, while sheepmeat production recovers. New Zealand beef supply will improve, supported by strong global demand.
Sustainability
The report stresses that sustainability-related risks linked to climate and nature are increasingly critical, as regulatory momentum pushes sustainability to the forefront of strategic planning for animal protein companies.
“Maintaining consumer trust is paramount. In times of heightened risk, consumers continue to prioritise animal welfare, supply availability, price, food safety, and quality, and these demands are driving advancements in transparency and traceability,” Ms Gocsik added.
“As the animal protein sector navigates these evolving dynamics, companies must pursue diversification and consolidation while adapting to shifting consumer preferences.”