Over the next decade global pig meat production is expected to increase in line with demand, according to the latest OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook. However, pig meat, traditionally the world’s most consumed animal protein, is set to be overtaken by poultry meat.
China to drive rise in global pig meat production
Between 2016 and 2026, global pig meat production is forecast to increase by 10% to 127.5 million tonnes (cwe). The main driver behind the overall rise is China, with production projected to rebound from the 2016 dip, and increase by 12% over the decade to 59.3 million tonnes in 2026. On the other hand, EU production is expected to post a slight decline (-1%) from the 2016 level, as the domestic market saturates.
Global pig meat trade spiked in 2016, driven by strong Chinese demand as domestic production fell. However, following the anticipated recovery in production, Chinese import demand is expected to fall back 43% between 2016 and 2026. While this is expected to drive an overall decline in global pig meat exports up to 2020, volumes are anticipated to recover in the latter half of the decade. Import demand from some developing nations, in particular Vietnam, South Korea and Mexico, is expected to drive this.
Pig meat to lose out to poultry over next decade
According to the latest outlook, pig meat consumption is set to be overtaken by poultry meat in 2017. Furthermore, the popularity of poultry meat is expected to rise further over the next decade, driven by its relative affordability compared to other red meats. Global consumption of poultry meat is set to climb by 13% between 2016 and 2026, with per capita consumption expected to grow by 2.5% over the same time frame. On the other hand, while total pig meat consumption is expected to grow 9% over the decade, per capita consumption is actually set to decline by 1% between 2016 and 2026.
Overall, the latest outlook only projects a marginal increase in pig meat prices over the next decade, but once inflation is taken into account, prices will actually record a slight decline. However, as feed prices are forecast to remain low, the outlook for global producers remains reasonably positive.
To read the full report, which also covers other agricultural sectors, click here.