Less than 2% growth for EU pigmeat output by 2025

EU pigmeat output is forecast to grow by less than 2% over the next decade, according to AHDB Pork.

Based on the latest outlook report from the European Commission (EC), pigmeat output in 2025 will be less than 2% higher than today’s 23.8 million tonnes with only a slow recovery from current low price levels being anticipated.

“The report suggests that prices will remain below the high levels of 2013, although there is considerable uncertainty,” said AHDB Pork. “In reality, the market is likely to see periods of both low and high prices during the period.

“The modest growth in supplies will still be too quick to match subdued EU consumption, however, which is projected to fall slightly despite an increase in the EU population.”

Per capita consumption, in fact, is forecast to fall from 32.6kg/head this year to 31.8kg by 2025.

“This means that exports will need to rise to reflect the additional volumes,” said AHDB Pork, adding that by the end of 2025, shipments are expected to be more than a quarter above current levels at 2.6 million tonnes.”

While the report also assumes that changes to pigmeat imports will remain minimal, it doesn’t take account of any impact of free-trade agreements which are not yet agreed, notably the Transatlantic Trade & Investment Partnership (TTIP) with the US.

Access full EC outlook report

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