A relatively tight pigmeat supply situation across the EU may not be sufficient to provide much support to prices, according to BPEX.
Responding to the latest figures produced by the European Commission (EC) working group on pigmeat forecasts, BPEX commented that while having previously had only a modest effect on prices, the Russian ban on imports of EU pork is “now beginning to bite”.
“With freezers and cold stores reported to be full of supplies which might previously have been sent to Russia, demand for slaughter pigs has fallen,” said BPEX. “The autumn was previously the peak season for exports to Russia and so a small year-on-year increase in pig numbers in September was enough to cause prices to start falling sharply.”
Further price falls are anticipated, therefore, with the EC group forecasting that the EU average price during the last quarter of this year and the first three months of next year will be below 1.40 euro/kg.
“If realised,” said BPEX, “these would be the lowest quarterly averages since the final three months of 2010.”
The EC group’s view on pig slaughterings is that totals are set to remain close to year earlier levels throughout the rest of 2014 and into the first half of 2015.