There has been a surge in confirmed cases of African swine fever on Chinese pig farms, with analysts predicting that this will reduce output and increase prices.
The disease has been a problem in China for a number of years after a wave during 2018 and 2019 killed millions of pigs. In response, Chinese farms improved procedures to reduce the impact of the virus but it still proves problematic, according to a report by Reuters.
Usually suffering a spike in infections in the winter, the increase in infections came comparatively late in the season. Analysts at Huachuang Securities said: “Data from swine fever virus testing companies show that the number of positive detections exploded after the new year holiday. The order of magnitude in a single month has reached the level of the whole year of 2022. We guess that the current swine fever infection area in northern production areas may be reaching 50%.”
It can be challenging to gain an accurate understanding of the true picture in China as farms often do not report outbreaks of African swine fever to the government. The impact of these outbreaks can depend on at what stage they are detected and how well they are managed.
Prices for Chinese pigs have settled around 15 yuan ($2.18) per kg since last year with pressure coming from weak demand and excess supply. The current outbreak will mean fewer pigs are brought to market and could reduce production by more than 10%.