The USDA has released its latest global outlook for pork, forecasting that in 2022 China pork imports are set to drop by almost a fifth year-on-year.
This drop is likely to more than offset the a post-COVID recovery in demand among other major importing countries, says the AHDB.
Exporters in the EU are expected to see a stronger demand from the UK, where imports are expected to increase by 7% in 2022.
The EU is also set to boost shipments to Japan, South Korea, and Australia, countries to which EU exports have fallen in recent years as sales have been focused towards China
Global pork production is forecast to increase by 3% in 2022, because of higher output in China. The global outlook report forecasts that the high stocks of pigs will lift supply in the first half of the year, but that low producer profitability will limit growth in the second.
Overall, Chinese pork production is forecast to be 51 million tonnes in 2022, 7% higher than 2021, offsetting tighter supplies in the EU, where the breeding herd has contracted.
Overall, global trade in pork is expected to fall by 4% to 11.7 million tonnes in 2022, as shrinking Chinese and Philippine imports will offset growth elsewhere, with Chinese imports forecast to decline by 19%, and the Philippines by 18% year-on-year.