Rising trade tensions between the US and China are creating opportunities for other suppliers, particularly in the EU and Latin America, according to RaboResearch’s latest report.
The report concludes that Brazilian and European pork are likely to benefit from US-China trade disruption. It notes that pork prices have rebounded and remain strong despite the shifting trade flows and growing economic and consumer uncertainties that have resulted from Donald Trump’s tariff regime.
However, while rising geopolitical tensions have had limited impact on global pork markets, so far, they are likely to redirect global trade volumes in the coming months. Despite the agreement between the US and China to reduce tariffs substantially for 90 days, with US tariffs on Chinese goods down to 30% from 145% and China’s reciprocal tariffs similarly reduced, the added tariffs on US pork could still curtail trade.
“For China’s swine sector, this development is likely to be price supportive, while alternative suppliers like the EU, Chile, and Brazil may also benefit,” said Christine McCracken, senior analyst – animal protein for RaboResearch.
Chinese importers that previously relied on US pork are likely to face margin pressure, while US pork exporters will likely see weaker offal values. With China’s market largely out of reach, alternative markets will absorb exports at reduced prices, RaboResearch predicts.
Heightened US-China trade tensions could also affect feedstocks, particularly soymeal, with slower US oilseed exports potentially reducing feed costs for US pig producers, partially offsetting export losses.
“Given the uncertainty surrounding future US trade policy, investment in US pork sector expansion is expected to slow, while other regions may see slightly faster growth,” Ms McCracken added.
Pork price rebound
Pork prices have rebounded, driven by tighter hog supplies due to limited growth in the sow herd and ongoing health and productivity challenges. The slow production response also reflects growing market uncertainty resulting from weaker economic growth prospects and the risk of trade disruptions from rising geopolitical tensions.
“We expect limited demand improvement for the rest of the year. High beef and poultry prices, along with the expected shift in consumer spending from foodservice to retail (where pork tends to perform better) may offer support,” Ms McCracken said.
However, potential export disruptions in the US and China, combined with slower economic growth and consumer spending pressures, are likely to cap additional improvement. Despite these headwinds, the industry remains relatively well-balanced, as limited sow herd growth is expected to constrain global pork supply, according to the report
Disease challenges linger
Herd health challenges, including foor-and-mouth disease and African swine fever, continue to constrain production in several key regions and, in some cases, are also dampening demand.
The reappearance of FMD in the EU, the first outbreaks in decades, led to the establishment of containment zones, increased surveillance, and imposed transport restrictions. Although several trade restrictions were put in place, they are gradually being lifted due to the absence of further outbreaks. There have also new FMD new cases in pigs in South Korea.
Meanwhile, much of Asia and parts of Europe continue to battle ASF. New cases and challenges in controlling the spread among wild boar populations are contributing to ongoing production losses and trade disruptions.
Additionally, porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome is negatively impacting pork production in parts of North America and Europe.
South American harvest
Expectations for a strong South American harvest and good planting progress for corn and oilseeds in the Northern Hemisphere are providing tailwinds for feed cost. However, geopolitical disruptions continue to impact global grain and oilseed trade.
Factors such as US dollar volatility, rising geopolitical tensions, ongoing US-China trade disruptions, and signs of a potential resolution to the Russia-Ukraine war are all influencing short-term market dynamics. Larger grain supplies and rising stock levels should help keep feed costs manageable, the report predicts.
“Our base case scenario for commodity prices suggests relatively flat feed costs for the remainder of 2025. However, geopolitical developments and weather-related uncertainties remain key risks,” Ms McCracken added.