UK pigmeat production is forecast to grow by 5% this year, driven by higher clean pig slaughter numbers and heavier weights.
The revised figure in AHDB’s updated Pork Outlook compares with an original forecast of a slight drop in production for the year, reflecting the unexpected surge in Q1 production.
UK pigmeat production reached 257,000t in Q1 – 5.3% higher year on year and way ahead of AHDB’s original forecast of 239,000t, a 2% decline.
Clean pig slaughterings rose by 2.3% to 2.64 million head, with higher supplies boosted by breeding and rearing performance, driven by a combination of improved health status, continued genetic progress and better management and feeding, according to AHDB.
Carcase weight boost
The effect has been exacerbated by higher average carcase weights, which climbed to 94.2kg, about 2.8kg heavier than Q1 2025.
“Rather than the backlog of pigs unwinding early in the year as anticipated, supply has stayed elevated,” the outlook document stated.
“A weaker market has kept more pigs moving through the system, and they have come forward at heavier weights. As a result, both slaughter throughput and average carcase weights have remained stronger than anticipated.”
April clean pig slaughterings were up 3% on April 2025. Slaughterings were down 1.7% year on year in May, although pigmeat production was fractionally higher than in May 2025 on the back of higher carcase weights.
Incorporating monthly data through to May, AHDB’s revised forecast predicts a significant year-on-year increases in Q2, Q3 and Q4.
For the full year, it predicts 2026 pigmeat production will reach about 1.03mt – 5% more than 2025’s 978,000t.
For the full year, clean pig slaughter is now forecast at about 10.77 million head, up 3.3% year on year. Carcase weights are expected to average 92.3kg, about 1.5kg higher than in 2025.
Looking beyond the current year, the elevated production seen in 2026 is not expected to be sustained.
As the remaining backlog clears and the underlying contraction in the breeding herd reasserts itself, both throughput and carcase weights are expected to ease through 2027.
On current assumptions, full-year 2027 pigmeat production is forecast to fall to 952,400t, a decline of 7.2% on 2026, returning output to broadly 2024 levels, with clean pig slaughter easing to about 10.1 million head, down 6.3% year on year.
“The pace of this adjustment remains uncertain, and will depend on how the breeding herd, producer margins and wider demand evolve over the coming months,” the document states.
Supply base
The document also notes that the throughput levels so far in 2026 raise questions about the underlying supply base.
It suggests there are either more breeding sows in the system than current census data indicate, which would support elevated production levels for a longer period, or that sow productivity has improved beyond expectations, implying that output gains are being generated from a herd that continues to contract.
The implications for future supply of the two scenarios differ significantly, but at present, slaughter data alone cannot distinguish between them.
The pace and scale of any adjustment in pig supplies will be critical in determining market performance through the remainder of the year, the updated outlook adds.