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Budget

IHT changes predicted to result in more than 200,000 job losses

Alistair DriverBy Alistair DriverMarch 25, 20254 Mins Read
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Protesting farmers at the Oxford Farming Conference

Changes to inheritance tax rules for farmers will result in the loss of more than 200,000 jobs and cost the government nearly £2bn, new research has shown.

More than 4,000 businesses and farms across the UK took part in a study into the economic and fiscal impacts of changes to Business Property Relief (BPR) and Agricultural Property Relief (APR), commissioned by Family Business UK and conducted by independent consultancy CBI-Economics.

It showed 23% of family businesses and 17 % of family farms have cut jobs or paused recruitment since the Autumn Budget, while 55% of family-owned businesses and 49% of family farms have paused or cancelled planned investments since the budget and will continue to do so before April 2026 when the changes come into force.

The research finds that the changes will result in more than 208,000 jobs being lost by the end of the parliament, with GVA (a measure of economic value) being reduced by £14.9 billion.

Taken together the loss of jobs and reduced GVA will result in a net fiscal loss to the Government of £1.9 billion by the end of the parliament, it concludes.

Damage done

Neil Davy, CEO of Family Business UK said: “Against a backdrop of huge uncertainty in global geopolitics and UK economic growth, these latest data show unequivocally the damage that is already being done to Britain’s family-owned businesses and farms, and the wider economy.

“Across every sector, decisions are being taken now to cut jobs, reduce investment and sell assets threatening the future of thousands of businesses, farms and the sustainability and security of UK farming and food production. Ultimately, it will be the working people, and communities right across the country, who depend on family-owned businesses and farms who’ll pay the price.”

But he said it was not too late for these policy decisions to be reviewed or reversed. “For months we have called on government to consult with us and our members in a meaningful way to find a workable solution that mitigates damaging impacts of the changes to BPR and APR on family firms whilst simultaneously raising additional tax revenue for the Treasury and re-incentivising family businesses and farms to invest, recruit and create long-term growth. We would still welcome that opportunity,” he added.

Summary of results

The research commissioned assesses the impacts of the changes to APR and BPR on both family-owned business and family farms, and the actual, as well as planned, actions taken in response to the policy change.

It reveals many far-reaching impacts on family businesses and farms including:

BPR impact

  • More than one in ten family businesses (12%) say they plan to sell their business entirely to fund the tax increase and 9% say they have already done so.
  • More than half (55%) of family businesses say they have already paused or cancelled planned business investments since the Budget, while a further 41% deferred or reduced investments. Looking ahead, 44% anticipate pausing or cancelling investments before April 2026, and 38% expect to further defer or reduce investments.
  • Nearly a quarter (23%) say they’ve paused recruitment or cut jobs since the Budget, and an additional quarter (23%) plan to do so before April 2026.
  • Nearly one in five (15%) have reduced or cancelled charitable contributions or community activities since the Budget and a similar number plan to do so before April 2026.
  • Impact of Capping APR on Family Farms

APR impact

  • Overall, half (49%) of family farms say they have paused or cancelled planned investment since the Budget, while 43% say they will do so before April 2026. An additional third (34%) say they have deferred or reduced investment already.
  • 14% say they plan to sell off assets or part of their farm, and 12% plan to sell land or shares to non-family investors. Another one in ten (11%) say they’ve downsized farming operations since the Budget, and one-fifth (21%) plan to do so before April 2026.
  • 17% say they’ve paused recruitment or cut jobs since the Budget, while 20% plan to do so before April 2026 – leading to an 8% reduction in employment across the agricultural sector by the end of the Parliament.
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Alistair Driver

Editor Pig World, group editor Agronomist and Arable Farmer and Farm Contractor. National Pig Association webmaster. Former political editor at Farmers Guardian. Occasional media pundit. Brought up on a Leicestershire farm. Works from a shed in his Oxfordshire garden.

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