Global pork production forecast rises by 2% as Chinese production rebuilds

The USDA has released its latest view on world markets and trade for livestock. 2020 forecast global pork production has been raised by 2% to 96 million tonnes, still 5.5% lower than in 2019 , AHDB analyst Jennie Tanner reported.

The rise is largely due to higher than expected pork production in China, which is in t he midst of producers rebuilding their herds to take advantage of high domestic prices in the wake of African Swine Fever (ASF), which decimated the country’s herd.

Closures at slaughter facilities in the United States, and COVID-19 restrictions have reduced forecast the country’s production by 2%, to 13 million tonnes in 2020.

A 2% reduction in production is also expected in Brazil (to 4 million tonnes) as reduced slaughtering is expected.

EU production is thought to have had only minor COVID-19 related disruptions and strong export demand is expected underpin production growth in Canada.

Ms Tanner commented: “Altogether, global pork trade is expected to increase to 10.9 million tonnes. This is due to Chinese imports increasing to 4.4 million tonnes in 2020, 0.5 million tonnes more than previously forecast in April. Despite disruptions from COVID-19, and the disruption to the economy and foodservice, Chinese demand for imported meat remains strong because of ASF. This strong import demand has helped increase China’s share of the global imports to 43%.”

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