Ongoing geopolitical disruption caused by war in the Middle East is imposing growing indirect pressures across global pork supply chains, according to RaboResearch.
Its latest quarterly pork report notes that global pork markets entered the current quarter with generally stable supply-demand fundamentals. However, the conflict in the Middle East is increasing uncertainty across costs, trade and consumption.
While direct exposure to is limited, higher energy prices, logistics disruption and fertiliser-driven feed risks are tightening margins across the sector, RaboResearch warns.
Feed markets remain relatively well supplied after strong global harvests, keeping costs contained. However, rising energy prices and improving biofuel economics are pushing oilseed markets higher, gradually eroding feed affordability.
Producers, particularly in regions facing disease challenges or high costs are increasingly cautious, while processors are also exposed, with higher costs likely to be passed on to consumers. On top of that, heightened global uncertainty is also contributing to more cautious consumer spending in some markets, the report warns.
“Inflationary pressures are only beginning and may weigh more heavily on purchases in the coming months. While pork availability should remain steady and affordable for most consumers, demand could soften as households look to economize. Consumer confidence in several key markets was already challenged and could see further declines tied to global uncertainty,” the report says.
Christine McCracken, senior animal protein analyst with RaboResearch, said: “We expect consumers to take a more cautious approach to spending in the coming months. Foodservice sales and spending on premium products will likely see the greatest initial impact, and total spending on proteins is expected to decline as consumers work to manage their overall spending.
“While pork sales could see a modest benefit as consumers shift to in-home food preparation and trading down to pork as a value protein, overall protein segment sales are expected to come under modest pressure.”
Disease-related disruption
Meanwhile, diseases like African swine fever (ASF) continue to slow production and add costs for the global pig industry. Nevertheless, the industry is making progress in the detection and control of their spread, RaboResearch notes.
The Philippines, for example, has reported a sharp drop in the number of ASF cases in Q1 2026, with the number of affected regions falling from nine to three. Despite ongoing advances in disease control, repopulation efforts remain slow due to high costs and limited financial support.
As a result, supply in some markets remains tight, with producers increasingly relying on the remaining herd and increasing productivity gains. Import volumes are rising to meet market needs, as a result.
“But shifting alignments and rising geopolitical turmoil are creating incremental trade frictions, bringing the potential for more protectionist trade policies that could impact the cost of key inputs, especially in the animal feed, equipment, and animal health industries,” the report adds.