EU pork production volumes are forecast to stabilise this year, following two years of production growth that has contributed to an oversupplied market.
The European Commission’s updated short-term outlook for 2026 predicts that net pig meat production will increase by just 0.3% to 22.1 million tonnes, in line with a 0.6% increase in the size of the sow herd.
Per capita consumption is forecast to stay the same, with the 2025 and 2026 figures both at 33.1kg/capita.
Imported volumes of pigmeat are expected to fall by 3% to 94,900 tonnes this year, whilst export volumes are forecast to drop by 0.5% to 2.97 million tonnes. EU pork exports volumes were 1.9% lower year on year over the first 5 months of this year.
The fore cast reduction in exports is being driven by outbreaks of African swine fever in Spain, China’s anti-dumping tariffs and increased competition from Brazil in the Asian markets, according to AHDB.
Increased EU pork production over the past two years, combined with ASF outbreaks, notably in Spain, that have resulted in product being rerouted back into the EU market, have resulted in significant downward pressure on EU pig prices over the past year. This, in turn, has impacted the UK pork market.
“Despite this, overall pork production in 2026 is set to remain relatively stable, with net production plus the trade balance resulting in a 0.3% increase in pork availability totalling 22.2 million tonnes,” AHDB said in a summary of the EU Outlook.
Figure 2: EU updated 2026 pork outlook – 2026forecast/2025 year-on-year change
Source: European Commission, AHDB calculations
Beef and lamb forecasts
EU beef and veal net production is forecast to fall by 2% year on year, with import volumes increasing and export volumes declining.
Lamb has the biggest forecasted change, with net production forecast to drop by 4%, alongside a 7% increase in imported volume and 3% decline in exported product.