EU pork export growth to slow as ASF cases rise and Chinese demand falls

According to a report from Reuters, growth in pork exports from the EU is expected to slow as Germany faces trade restrictions following an outbreak of African Swine Fever and Chinese demand contracts.

The EU’s executive forecast on Monday, included a short-term agricultural outlook report by the European Commission, said that After increasing by 15% in the first half of the year, including a doubling of volumes to China, EU pork exports were expected to rise by only 2% over 2020.

For next year, it projected a 10% decline in exports, in part due to an expected contraction in Chinese demand as the country rebuilds its own pig herd that was decimated by ASF.

Germany, the EU’s largest pork producer, is currently barred from trade with major importing countries, including China and South Korea, after ASF was detected in wild boar last month.

The Commission said in its latest outlook that Denmark, Spain and the Netherlands “may fill gaps partially in supply to China and Asian markets” but that “the evolution of the Eu exports will depend on the capacity of Germany to contain the disease,” however that “export growth would not have continued even without an ASF outbreak in Germany.”

“Any production growth in Q4 should come only from Spain, Denmark and Ireland, which expanded their herds, including breeding sows, in 2019,” the Commission added.


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