Pig World
  • News
      • Animal Health
      • Breeding
      • Business
      • Environment
      • EU
      • Food Safety
      • Housing
      • Marketing
      • NPA
      • National Pig Awards
      • New Products
      • Nutrition
      • People
      • Pig Fair
      • Politics
      • Training & Education
      • Welfare
  • Features
    • Animal Health
    • Breeding
    • Environment
    • Farm Visits
    • Herd Recording
    • Housing
    • Marketing
    • Nutrition
    • Products
    • Training
  • Comment
    • AHDB Pork
    • Chris Fogden
    • Dennis Bridgeford
    • Peter Crichton
    • Red Robin
    • Veterinary View
    • Zoe Davies, NPA
  • Numbers
  • Pig Prices
  • Magazines
    • July 2025
    • June 2025
    • 2025 Innovation supplement
    • May 2025
    • April 2025
    • March 2025
    • 2025 Buildings supplement
    • February 2025
    • 2025 Nutrition Supplement
    • January 2025
    • December 2024
    • November 2024
    • 2025 National Pig Awards supplement
    • October 2024
    • September 2024
    • August 2024
    • 2024 Pig Health supplement
    • July 2024
    • June 2024
    • 2024 Innovation supplement
    • 2024 Pig & Poultry Fair Guide
    • May 2024
    • April 2024
    • 2024 Buildings Supplement
    • March 2024
    • 2024 Pig Nutrition supplement
    • February 2024
    • January 2024
    • December 2023
    • November 2023
    • 2023 National Pig Awards supplement
    • October 2023
    • September 2023
    • Health Supplement
  • Suppliers
  • Jobs
    • Browse Jobs
    • Post a Job
    • Manage Jobs
  • Classified
  • Events
    • Pigs Tomorrow
    • National Pig Awards
Podcast
Pig WorldPig World
  • News
      • Animal Health
      • Breeding
      • Business
      • Environment
      • EU
      • Food Safety
      • Housing
      • Marketing
      • NPA
      • National Pig Awards
      • New Products
      • Nutrition
      • People
      • Pig Fair
      • Politics
      • Training & Education
      • Welfare
  • Features
    • Animal Health
    • Breeding
    • Environment
    • Farm Visits
    • Herd Recording
    • Housing
    • Marketing
    • Nutrition
    • Products
    • Training
  • Comment
    • AHDB Pork
    • Chris Fogden
    • Dennis Bridgeford
    • Peter Crichton
    • Red Robin
    • Veterinary View
    • Zoe Davies, NPA
  • Numbers
  • Pig Prices
  • Magazines
    1. July 2025
    2. June 2025
    3. 2025 Innovation supplement
    4. May 2025
    5. April 2025
    6. March 2025
    7. 2025 Buildings supplement
    8. February 2025
    9. 2025 Nutrition Supplement
    10. January 2025
    11. December 2024
    12. November 2024
    13. 2025 National Pig Awards supplement
    14. October 2024
    15. September 2024
    16. August 2024
    17. 2024 Pig Health supplement
    18. July 2024
    19. June 2024
    20. 2024 Innovation supplement
    21. 2024 Pig & Poultry Fair Guide
    22. May 2024
    23. April 2024
    24. 2024 Buildings Supplement
    25. March 2024
    26. 2024 Pig Nutrition supplement
    27. February 2024
    28. January 2024
    29. December 2023
    30. November 2023
    31. 2023 National Pig Awards supplement
    32. October 2023
    33. September 2023
    34. Health Supplement
    Featured

    July 2025 issue of Pig World now available

    July 6, 2025
    Recent

    July 2025 issue of Pig World now available

    July 6, 2025

    June 2025 issue of Pig World now available

    June 4, 2025

    2025 Innovation supplement now available

    June 4, 2025
  • Suppliers
  • Jobs
    • Browse Jobs
    • Post a Job
    • Manage Jobs
  • Classified
  • Events
    • Pigs Tomorrow
    • National Pig Awards
LinkedIn X (Twitter)
Pig World
News

EU market cautious over 2018 outlook

John SwireBy John SwireApril 26, 20183 Mins Read
LinkedIn Twitter Facebook Email

New estimates from the members of the EU Commission’s working group on pig meat suggest that increased supply levels can be expected throughout 2018. These forecasts are based on the December results of the EU pig censusand industry sentiment from member states.

With some modest expansion recorded in the breeding herd last year, a year-on-year increase of just over 1% is expected for EU slaughter in 2018. The rate of expansion is predicted to accelerate slightly as the year progresses.

However, the situation is expected to vary at member state level. Denmark and Spain anticipate the largest increases in slaughterings this year, with GIP (Gross Indigenous Production- the slaughter of pigs born domestically) forecast to increase by 3% and 2% respectively. While a smaller producer, Poland also anticipate that GIP could increase by 3%, despite ongoing challenges with African Swine Fever, as their domestic consumption increases.

pig2

Other member states have been more cautious about the throughputs anticipated this year. In Germany, an increase in GIP of less than 1% is expected for the year overall, reflecting increasing challenges regarding animal welfare regulations and attracting the younger generation to work in the industry. The risk of African Swine Fever is also an increasing concern for the German industry.

With GIP trends differing between member states, trade in piglets is likely to pick up this year. A number of countries anticipate procuring more piglets from Denmark, the Netherlands and Belgium this year, to supplement their own domestic supplies. This will likely limit the growth in net slaughterings recorded in these countries.

Reflecting the higher production levels, the forecast working group expects pig prices within the EU to be lower this year. Prices are expected to peak in Q3 at around the €154.77/100kg level, around 18 eurocents lower than the peak last year.

Stagnant domestic demand in the face of expanding production levels is a key driver of the lower price expectations this year, as well as lower global pork prices. There is also uncertainty surrounding prospects for the international export market. Expanding production in the US and Canada means competition on the Asian markets should intensify this year. However, if China’s recent 25% import tariff on US pork were to be implemented for prolonged period, the competitive position of the EU would be boosted.

The threat of African Swine fever also represents a significant risk to the outlook for EU pig prices in 2018. The number of incidents reported in wild boar so far this year has already reached almost 2,300 cases, more than half the total number recorded in the entire of 2017. The industry is extremely nervous of the disease reaching Germany, which would likely result in the loss of most of Germany’s pork exports outside of the EU (400,000 tonnes in 2017). Such an event would generate an oversupply situation on the European market, and significantly lower pig price prospects across the union.

Given these forecasts, it seems unlikely that the EU market will provide much support to UK pig prices this year. On current exchange rates, the EU average price for 2018 would be equivalent to around 128p/kg. Retailer commitment to British pig meat will therefore be important to maintain the UK price premium, which has averaged 20p for the year so far.

 

Share. LinkedIn Facebook Twitter Email
Previous ArticleSupply growth restricted in coming months
Next Article Cranswick becomes founding member of WRAP’s pact to transform the UK plastic system
John Swire

Read Similar Stories

ABN kicks off pioneering long-term mill project

July 11, 2025

Red Tractor to press ahead with new tiers for outdoor pig producers

July 10, 2025

Last chance to enter or nominate for 2025 National Pig Awards

July 10, 2025
Latest News

ABN kicks off pioneering long-term mill project

July 11, 2025

Red Tractor to press ahead with new tiers for outdoor pig producers

July 10, 2025

Last chance to enter or nominate for 2025 National Pig Awards

July 10, 2025
Sponsored Content

THE GATEKEEPER OF RESPIRATORY HEALTH – MYCOPLASMA HYOPNEUMONIAE (M.HYO)

April 30, 2024

Tackle the root cause of PWD with free diagnostic tests

March 1, 2024
Current Pig Industry jobs
  • Senior-Level Pig Stockperson – Ref 1760 Hampshire

    • Hampshire
    • Roadhogs Recruitment Ltd.
    • Full Time
  • Pig Stockperson – Ref 1759 North Yorkshire

    • North Yorkshire
    • Roadhogs Recruitment Ltd.
    • Full Time
  • Pig Stockperson – Ref 1758 Norfolk

    • Norfolk
    • Roadhogs Recruitment Ltd.
    • Full Time
GETTING IN TOUCH
  • Advertise
  • Contact Us
  • Meet The Editors
  • About Us
  • Email Newsletters
  • Subscribe
  • Reuse permissions
OUR SOCIAL CHANNELS
  • Twitter
  • LinkedIn
PARTNER EVENTS
RELATED SITES
  • Farmers Weekly
  • Agronomist & Arable Farmer
  • Farm Contractor
  • National Pig Awards
  • Pigs Tomorrow
  • Poultry News
  • Weekly Tribune
  • Privacy Policy
  • Cookies Policy
  • Terms and Conditions
© 2024 MA Agriculture Ltd, a Mark Allen Group company

Type above and press Enter to search. Press Esc to cancel.