China eyes 95% self-sufficiency target for pig meat as herd rebuilds

A document recently released by the Chinese Government highlights their ambitions for food security in livestock sectors, with the aim of producing 95% of its pig meat domestically, AHDB analyst Felicity Rusk has reported.

This is to achieved through a rapid rebuilding of its pig herd following the ASF epidemic. However, Ms Rusk said that no timeframe was proposed for achieving this target.

“While 95% may sound like an ambitious target, China prior to the ASF outbreak averaged at around 99% self-sufficiency for pig meat,” Ms Rusk explained. “This year, even with production expecting to fall by another 8.3% on the year due to ASF, self-sufficiency is estimated at 93%. This is because OECD-FAO also expect consumption of pig meat to fall this year by around 6.4%.”

She adds that, according to the forecasts from the OECD-FAO Agricultural outlook (2020-29), China should reach is self-sufficiency target next year.

“The forecast assumes a 6.5% increase in production, with a, more modest, 4.6% uplift in consumption. However, these increases do assume that there will be no further waves of ASF among the pig herd.”

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