China’s anti-dumping investigation into EU pork could have a ripple effect across the entire global market, according to analysts at RaboResearch.
RaboResearch’s latest quarterly pork report concluded that an improved cost environment and resilient demand are supporting the outlook for global pork markets. It predicts that lower feed costs will support farming expansion, while pork consumption should improve in the second half of 2024 due to seasonal demand.
However, it adds that disease pressures and trade vulnerabilities, including China’s antidumping probe into EU pork imports, are risk factors.
The outcome of China’s investigation, which began in June in response to the EU’s decision to impose tariffs of up to 37.6% on Chinese-made electric vehicles, could impact the EU market and have a ripple effect across the global market, according to Chenjun Pan, senior analyst – animal protein at RaboResearch.
“A suspension of EU exports or high tariffs could mean global pork trade flows are rerouted as China finds new origins and EU exports flow to other regions,” she said.
“If EU exporters offer discounts to capture new markets, importing countries may need to support and protect local producers. Meanwhile, other exporting countries may find their traditional trade partners shift to cheaper EU pork products.”
The US-China trade war that started in 2018 has already altered global pork trade, as the US lost competitiveness with China due to its higher tariffs, with Brazil as the largest beneficiary.
The upcoming US presidential election could bring changes in US trade policy and uncertainty to global trade patterns over the coming years, she added.
“With rising concerns over trade disruptions given these geopolitical complexities, many governments have supported improvements in domestic production to increase self-sufficiency and reduce reliance on imports,” said Ms Pan.
Lower feed costs
Ample global supplies of grains and oilseeds should pressure feed prices in the second half of the year, continuing to benefit producers and encourage herd expansion, the report predicts:
“Earlier supply contraction and lower feed costs in most regions have improved farming profitability, along with productivity gains. Producers in some regions have started to rebuild sow herds, anticipating declining feed prices and growing demand,” Ms Pan added.
Some countries, such as China, Vietnam, and Philippines, are expected to see tight pork supply in the second half of 2024 due to disease outbreaks. Other regions, including the EU and the US, are predicted to see pork supply increase slightly.
“Sow herd recovery will likely be faster than expected, especially in the EU and China,” Ms Pan added. “Productivity gains will continue despite recurrent disease issues in some regions.”
Consumer demand for pork is relatively resilient across the globe, driven by a mixture of factors, including easing inflationary pressure, slower economic growth, competitively priced proteins, and seasonal changes.
Pork consumption should improve due to seasonal demand over the remainder of the year, while easing pork prices in the EU and weak prices in the US should support consumption in these regions, RaboResearch predicts.