Pigmeat production levels are heading for an estimated end-of-year total of 111.5 million tonnes with 2016 forecast to be marginally higher at 112m tonnes, according to AHDB Pork.
Analysing the latest global outlook report published by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), the “slow grow” forecast means that global output this year will have advanced by just 1% with next year’s total rising by an even smaller margin.
“A slight decline (in output) from the EU will be offset by estimated increases from other countries, with production from Russia up by 6%,” said AHDB Pork.
“China continues to dominate pig production across the globe but it is forecast that production in the country will decrease slightly in 2015 before regaining volume in 2016.
“US production growth is expected to continue, although slowing significantly, from 8% in 2015 to just 1% next year while the Brazilian pork industry is estimated to grow further, with increases of 2% in both 2015 and 2016, as the country increases shipments to the Russian market.”
Quoting the USDA on export projections, AHDB Pork pointed out that the majority of next year’s growth is expected to be led by the US and Brazil, with exports ahead by 5% and 3% respectively.
“Imports to Japan, the world’s leading buyer of imported pork, are estimated to decrease by 5% in 2015 and a further 2% in 2016 as the country’s domestic production rebuilds after PEDv outbreaks in 2014,” said AHDB Pork.
“Of course, exports to Russia are also set to be much lower this year, with further falls next year. These falls are being offset by increased export shipments to Mexico, China and South Korea, among others, although growth will be much lower next year.”
