Productivity growth is forecast to keep driving UK pigmeat output

UK pigmeat production is expected to rise in 2016 for a seventh consecutive year, according to the latest supply forecast from AHDB Pork.

While most information suggests a broadly stable breeding herd, productivity growth looks set to continue as the “main driver of pig slaughterings”.

“Analysis suggests that productivity will continue to increase at a similar rate to recent years,” said AHDB Pork, adding that there is little reason to think that recent improvement rates can’t be sustained.

“As a result, clean pig slaughterings are likely to rise again next year, albeit possibly at a slightly slower rate than in 2015.”

A further increase in imported pork is also predicted for 2016, with the EU market looking “well supplied” and prices on the continent being well below UK levels and forecast to stay low well into next year.

“The relatively strong pound, meanwhile, is still limiting export growth and the global trading environment is likely to be tough next year,” said AHDB Pork. “Exports will, therefore, probably rise only slowly, even if the UK gains agreement to export trotters to China.

“This means there should again be more pigmeat available on the UK market in 2016, keeping prices under pressure, always depending, as always, on how demand responds.”

Access full AHDB Pork forecasts

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