Global pork prices are expected to remain “close to the levels recorded in most recent years” for the next decade, according to the new Agricultural Output 2015-2024 report from the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO).
On pork consumption prospects, the report forecasts an “overall stable” position with population growth in developing countries being the main driver of any increase. In addition, however, the report includes a warning, based on past experience, that there is a “high probability” of at least one severe shock to international markets occurring within the next ten years.
Looking at prospects for all agricultural products, the expectation is for a decrease in value over the next ten years. This view is justified on the basis of “on-trend productivity growth”, helped by lower input prices, outpacing the slowing of recent increases in consumer demand.
Meat and dairy product prices are expected to be high, relative to crop prices as rising incomes in emerging economies, which will continue to allow consumers to diversify their diets by increasing their consumption of animal protein, relative to starches. Despite this, global meat production is projected to rise at a slower rate in the next decade than in the past 10 years as the volume of meat traded around the world is expected to slow.
There’s also a comment that the implementation of various bilateral trade agreements over the next decade could diversify the meat trade considerably.