Export prices look set for “renewed pressure”

Average global pork prices continued to “pick up” in the third quarter of 2016 but look set to come under renewed pressure in the final three months of the year, according to AHDB Pork.

Reporting an average global export price in September of $2.63/kg (£2.07/kg), which was the highest for 15 months, AHDB Pork warned of a final quarter of “renewed price pressures” driven in part by a sharp fall in US prices.

“At one point, the lean hog futures nearby price reached its lowest level since 2002,” said AHDB Pork, adding that prices have only recovered modestly since then.

“While this is yet to have a major impact in the EU, with export values rising in dollar terms, increased competition on export markets may well put some pressure on EU prices.”

AHDB Pork also commented that the rise in prices during the July-September period came at a time when the amount of pork being exported fell back from the inflated level of earlier in the year.

“Having reached over 500,000 tonnes in May, around 440,000 tonnes was traded in each month in the latest quarter,” it said.

“Although this represents a significant decline, it is worth remembering that this would have represented an all-time high as recently as October last year. As a result, the amount traded in the first nine months of this year reached 4.1 million tonnes, nearly 90% of the total for the whole of last year and up by almost a quarter on January-September 2015.”

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