Changes in China reduce global forecasts for pigmeat output

Global pigmeat production is forecast to decrease by 1% on the year, reducing the total output to 109.3 million tonnes in 2016, according to AHDB Pork.

Using the latest global outlook report from the USDA, this new forecast is 2% lower than the global estimate published in October last year, largely due to reduced expectations concerning the industry in China.

Having previously predicted an increase, year on year, for production in China, USDA is now forecasting a decrease of 3%, year on year, to 53.5 million tonnes.

“The reduction in output is thought to be due to poor producer profitability last year, a slowdown in China’s economic growth and issues surrounding its environmental regulations,” said AHDB Pork.

EU pigmeat production, meanwhile, is expected to exceed October’s forecast by 1%, although that would still leave Europe down by 1% on 2015, with low pig prices causing a contraction of the EU pig herd.

US production is forecast to increase by 2% on the year to a record 11.3 million tonnes while output from Russia and Brazil is expected to rise by 3% and 2% respectively.

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