AHDB has lowered its forecast for 2025 UK pigmeat production, after a drop in production in Q3, largely driven by the excessively warm summer.
AHDB’s latest forecast is for a 1.5% rise in pigmeat production across the year to 968,000 tonnes, with the clean pig kill up 1.1% to 10.36m head. However, in August, it was predicting a 2.3% year-on-year increase in production to 988,000t.
The figure has been revised on the back of a 2.4% year-on-year decline in pigmeat production to 237,000t in Q3, 1% below the volume produced in Q2. The actual Q3 figure was in contrast to the forecast growth of 1.4% for the quarter.
The Q3 decline was been driven by lower slaughter numbers and lower carcase weights in July and August as a result of the prolonged hot and dry weather in late spring and throughout the summer, with signs of recovery seen in Defra September UK pig slaughter data.
The clean pig kill in September totalled 869,000 head, compared with 826,000 head in August, an increase of 5.2%. Carcase weights also recorded a significant jump, gaining 1.4 kg in September to average 90.7 kg, returning to values seen earlier in the year.
Pigmeat production over the first three quarters of the year was up 1.8% year on year to 720,000t, driven by a 1.5% increase in clean pig kill, totalling 7.7m head, alongside a 0.5kg hike in carcase weights.
AHDB is forecasting that pigmeat production will return to year on year growth in Q4, by around 1%. This is expected to be driven by increased carcase weights, which have already picked up in the weekly SPP sample through October.
However, AHDB expects that the clean pig kill will be flat year on year, with throughput disruptions caused by breakdowns having been noted in October and Christmas demand focusing kill schedules in November and December.
Overall, for the full year, this would result in 2025 pigmeat production totalling 968,000 t, an increase of 1.5% compared to 2024, with clean pig kill up 1.1% at 10.36m head.