Wishin’ & Hopin’

This week’s pig commentary is being published two days earlier than normal because of the Jubilee Bank Holiday.

On a positive note the SPP has risen by 0.78p to stand at 176.73p, but indications are emerging that European prices are in the main likely to level sideways.

Last week’s UK weekly contribution prices were mainly between 173p – 190p/kg and according to trade sources this picture is unlikely to change much when they are announced on Friday.

Spot bacon demand is likely to be governed by the weather which currently does not look too favourable as far as BBQs and street parties are concerned, but with a bit of luck a rather gloomy weather forecast could perhaps turn out to be slightly better than expected.

A week ago spot bacon traded in the main between 150p – 160p/kg with not much change, although since then more reports of pig shortages on the horizon could perk up the market on the basis that every cloud has a silver lining.

Once the Jubilee holiday is over cull sow prices are forecast to remain at relatively static levels with larger numbers available and it is anticipated that most prices will be within a 63p – 67p/kg range.

The value of the Euro has hardly changed and traded worth 85.16p at midday on Wednesday. However, thanks to the increase in the SPP 7kg ex farm piglet prices are on the move and for those fortunate enough to have secure contracts, prices of between £42 – £47/head are being recorded for RSPCA Assured piglets.

Feed ingredient prices quoted on the 1st June 2022 saw feed wheat slipping back in value by £18/t for July delivery over the last seven days to stand at £315/t, which is for once a step in the right direction. Longer months included feed wheat for September delivery traded at £307/t.

Weekly feed wheat spot prices on an ex farm basis remain at £306.50/t and although there is still a yawning gap between COP levels and returns at least they are currently moving slightly in producers’ favour.

Feed barley has also slipped to just below the £300/t mark with September traded at £292/t. Protein prices appear to have levelled with Hipro soya for June – October delivery at £478/t and virtually the same price for May – October 2023.

Rapemeal has thankfully lost some of its recent gains with July delivery at £338/t down from £359/t over the past seven days.

And finally, looking further ahead signs are continuing to emerge that in many parts of the globe pig numbers are continuing to decline which should help prices to recover from their recent lows.

Headline news is that the Spanish pig market has been hit by widespread PRRS outbreaks with mortality between 30%-35% and it is forecast that around 20% of the number of pigs marketed per week could be lost.

In addition to this the recent ASF outbreaks in Germany could according to recent reports decrease output by a further 300,000 sows when coupled with other negative aspects such as the ongoing high cost of feed.

In the meantime however, UK producers will have to try and keep their heads above water and hope that further initiatives from retailers will continue to become available to try and get away from the fifty shades of red the industry is currently experiencing.

STOP PRESS

Since preparing this week’s Pig Commentary, unfortunately cull sow prices have taken a dive in Germany with reports indicating that due to a combination of poor demand, a surplus of pig meat, and freezers virtually full to capacity cull sow demand has suddenly slipped by a significant amount, although for the time being finished pig prices are still holding.

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About The Author

Based in Suffolk, Peter Crichton provides a wide range of valuation, auction and livestock marketing services, as well as supplying the UK pig industry with a wide range of consultancy services covering tenancy, contract advice, pig equipment and herd valuations as well as dispute resolution. For more information visit: www.petercrichton.co.uk