UK pigmeat supply has remained relatively high and stubbornly out of synch with demand so far this year, contributing, alongside plummeting EU pig prices, to the market trough we find ourselves in.
UK pigmeat production is forecast to rise by 4% this year to just over 1mt. However, next year should see production volumes drop back to similar levels recorded in 2025, according to AHDB’s revised Pork Outlook.
The update by AHDB livestock analyst Adam Chowdry covers all aspects of the supply chain, including the breeding herd, slaughter numbers and meat production, trade and demand, to try to make sense of where the under-pressure UK pig sector goes from here.
“For producers, the important point is not simply that production is forecast to fall this year, but what sits behind that change and what it could mean for the industry beyond 2027,” Mr Chowdry said.
Monthly Defra figures show UK pigmeat production was up 4.3% year on year to 754,000t over the first nine months of this year, driven by both a higher clean pig kill, up 2.4% year on year at 7.9m head, despite a September dip, and heavier carcase weights.
There is a mixed picture within the UK as far as throughputs go. In the year to date, GB clean pig slaughterings were 3.8% up year on year at 6.5m head, while the figure for NI was 3.3% lower at 1.42m head.
“The backlog of pigs that was expected to clear early at the start of the year instead persisted well into the summer,”
Mr Chowdry said. “How this has been felt depends largely on where a business sits in the supply chain.”
Full-year UK pigmeat production is forecast at about 1.02mt, up 4% year on year and building on growth of 2.6% in 2025. The clean pig kill is predicted to rise by 2.7% to 10.71m head, with carcase weights averaging 92kg.
Q3 production is forecast to be up 3.6% year on year, with Q4 2.5% higher. Weights normalised in Q3, to be broadly level with 2025, meaning growth in the second half of 2026 is, so far, being supported by higher slaughter numbers. However, weights have started to rise again in recent weeks.
2027 forecasts
For 2027, pigmeat production is predicted to fall back by 3.7% to about 979,100t. This is driven mainly by a forecast 3% fall in the clean kill to 10.39m head, linked to a smaller breeding herd, as producers respond to the dire market situation. Meanwhile, carcase weights are set to ease by 0.8% to 91.2kg.
The sharpest decline in production is expected in Q1, with AHDB forecasting a 9.3% year-on-year reduction, driven largely by a 7.6% fall in clean pig slaughterings compared with Q1 2026, when the backlog was its peak, also inflating carcase weights.
Mr Chowdry pointed out, however, that slaughter capacity towards the end of 2026 could be an issue, with industry reports suggesting about 10,000 uncontracted pigs a week may be without slaughter space during the busiest quarter of the year.
“If the gap between available pigs and processing capacity widens, this could create a renewed backlog into early 2027, which our Q1 forecast does not assume. Alternatively, pigs sold on the spot market could provide processors with cheaper supply, which could weigh on wider market prices,” he said.
Overall, production in 2027 is predicted to be broadly level with 2025, as carcase weights, supported by improved genetics and gains in pigs per sow per year, offset a slightly lower kill. “However, these factors are only expected to provide a partial offset to lower slaughter. They cannot remove the longer-term implications of a contracting breeding herd,” Mr Chowdry said.
Breeding herd
AHDB estimates that the UK female breeding sow herd stood at approximately 331,000 head in June 2026, up 1.5% on June 2025, as good margins encouraged producers to hold or expand sow numbers.
AHDB has revised its June 2025 estimate up to 326,000 head, from 320,000 head in the February outlook, following updated data from the Electronic Medicines Book (eMB). This is a decline of just 0.3% on 2024, rather than the 2.1% previously assumed.
Defra’s June 2026 survey results for England show a 3.4% increase in the female breeding herd, but Mr Chowdry said this should be treated with caution, as it follows a 5.3% decline reported for June 2025.
Part of this year’s increase is, therefore, likely to reflect a recovery from a lower starting point, rather than growth of that scale in the herd itself, he said.
Productivity has also played a significant role. AHDB estimates that pigs per sow per year have increased by 4% since 2024, as genetic improvements have lifted litter sizes and piglet survival. “Combined with a larger herd than previously estimated, this helps explain why slaughter has run ahead of expectations and has contributed significantly to the current oversupply,” he said.
Looking ahead, AHDB forecasts that the sow herd will contract by 0.9% to 328,000 head by June 2027, before falling a further 1.5% to 323,000 head by June 2028.
“Negative net margins through 2026 are expected to prompt some producers to reduce sow numbers, with the effect on production feeding through over the following year. The move to flexi-farrowing systems are particularly relevant and will likely compound this,” Mr Chowdry added.
“Flexi-farrowing pens need significantly more space than traditional systems. Where new buildings cannot secure planning approval, adapting existing facilities may mean reducing sow numbers instead. These may appear to be relatively modest annual reductions in sow numbers, but they matter because they affect the productive base from which the whole sector operates.”
AHDB expects the national sow herd to finally stabilise at about 323,000 head in 2029, as tighter supply supports prices and margins, leaving the herd around 20% smaller than in 2020.
Trade
UK pigmeat exports are predicted to rise by 16% in 2026, with growth concentrated in the first half of the year, driven by Ireland and Japan. “Heavy domestic supply and weaker UK pig prices made UK product more competitive overseas and pushed processors to find outlets for surplus pigs,” Mr Chowdry said.
Exports are forecast to drop back by 12% in 2027 as domestic production and exportable surplus falls, although shipments are forecast to remain 2.5% above 2025 levels. UK pigmeat imports are predicted to fall by 3% in 2026 against ample domestic supply and ongoing retail support for British pork.
AHDB forecasts that pigmeat imports will grow by about 2% in 2027, reflecting tighter domestic supply and the European price discount, but will remain below 2025 levels, as lower exports keep more UK product on the domestic market.
Demand
In the year to September 6, retail spend on pigmeat declined by 1.1% year on year, while out-of-home purchases saw a decline of 2.7%. Overall pigmeat demand is forecast to decline by 2% year on year in 2026, followed by a further 1% fall in 2027.
In retail, processed pork has continued to struggle as shoppers focus on health, while primary cuts have performed well, led by a 33.5% year-on-year increase for pork mince.
Pig prices
Prices are set to remain under pressure for the rest of 2026, with high volumes of uncontracted pigs forecast to come onto the market, adding to supply into Christmas, alongside low EU prices.
In 2027, prices are expected to ‘firm gradually’, however. “UK production is forecast to fall and continued negative margins are likely to prompt some herd reductions, tightening supply further into 2028. However, a slight decline in consumption and the wide EU price discount are expected to limit gains,” Mr Chowdry said.
“The outlook is not simply a negative story. The estimated growth achieved in 2026 demonstrates the sector’s ability to improve output, and productivity gains will continue to provide support. But the evidence points to a more constrained supply picture in 2027, followed by further pressure on sow numbers in 2028.
“Decisions taken now about buildings, herd size and future investment will determine how readily the sector can respond when market conditions change. For producers, the central issue is how to maintain that productive capacity.”