EU pigmeat production is expected to contract gradually over the next 10 years, according to the European Commission’s latest medium-term agricultural outlook.
The commission forecasts that between 2025 and 2035, EU pigmeat production is forecast will fall by 0.75% per year, due to the introduction of stricter animal welfare and environmental regulations in certain EU countries, coupled with declining export opportunities, particularly to China.
It is assumed in this forecast that although African swine fever remains present in the EU, there are no major or uncontrolled outbreaks, according to AHDB analyst Hannah McLoughlin, who has summarised the report.
EU pigmeat consumption is also projected to decline, falling from 23.3kg per capita a year to 21.8kg/year in 2035.
“Despite pig meat remaining the cheapest meat type in the EU, environmental and societal concerns are said to continue to reduce consumer appetite. Additionally, the higher fat content of pigmeat may also be seen as less favourable by consumers,” Ms McLoughlin said.
The historical trend of declining pigmeat imports is expected to continue, at an average rate of 1.2% per year. Although global pig meat demand is projected as stable, EU pigmeat exports are forecast to decrease by 1% per year by 2035, a loss of 280,000t.
The commission forecasts that the UK will become the EU’s largest export destination for pigmeat. With production improving in China and Vietnam, key destination for EU product, the EU will look to other opportunities in other regions, such as Africa. However, this will be faced with increased competition from the USA, Canada and Brazil, leading to the EU’s share of global pigmeat exports declining from 28.5% to 26%, Ms McLoughlin added.
Beef and lamb forecasts
EU beef production is forecast to decline by 615,000t to 6.1mt between now and 2035, a 9.2% reduction compared with the 2023–2025 average. Contributing to this decline, the EU cow herd is expected to decrease by 2.85m head (-9.7%) by 2035.
EU per capita beef consumption is expected to decline to 6.1kg by 2035, down 0.57kg per capita versus the 2023–25 average.
Production of sheep and goat meat is projected to decrease to 539,000t by 2035, falling by 0.7% per year over the next decade.