The UK pig breeding herd declined by 3.2% to 316,000 head in the year to June 2025, the lowest figure on record, according to newly-released Defra figures. However, AHDB has questioned the validity of the Defra breeding herd calculations.
The June census showed a 0.5% increase in the overall herd to 4,739,000 head on the back of a 0.9% rise in fattening pig numbers to 4,333,000 head, which cancelled out the breeding herd decline.
The UK female breeding herd contracted from 398,000 head to 343,000 head in June 2022 due to the pig crisis and has now fallen in each of the three years since, at least according tothe Defra census figures, which have been disputed in the past.
The 2025 figures show the number of sows in pig declined by 1.5% year on year to 233,000 head, while in-pig gilt numbers were down 7.7% to 39,000 and dry sows or those being suckled were down 8.6% to 44,000 head. Gilts intended for first time breeding fell by 2.4% to 82,000 head, with boar numbers 6.2% lower at 9,000 head.
The breakdown by country showed significant growth in Northern Ireland’s breeding pig numbers, up 10% to 62,000, and fattening pig numbers, up 7.4% to 683,000 head.
In contrast, the English pig breeding herd declined by 4% to 313,000 head, with fattening pig numbers slightly down to 3,341,000 head.
Scottish breeding pig numbers were 17% down to 30,000, but fattening pig numbers up slightly to 282,000 head. Welsh breeding numbers were down slightly to 2,200 head, with fattening pigs fractionally up at 26,000.
Response bias
In August, AHDB forecast a 3% increase in the UK female breeding herd in the year to June 2025.
AHDB senior analyst Freya Shuttleworth said AHDB has contacted Defra to discuss the data methodology and ‘highlight the importance of accurate and timely data reporting’.
She pointed out that the June survey is carried out by a sample of commercial holdings and then scaled up to a national level and is ‘subject to a non-response bias’, while other data sources available to us imply a smaller change in the number of breeding pigs.
For example, Agrovision KPIs indicate a 1% decline in Q2 2025 vs Q2 2024, while the eMB submission data for Q2 shows differing trends by country, with both England and Scotland down 2% compared to the -4% and -17%, respectively, recorded by Defra. For Northern Ireland, numbers are down 5% compared with Defra’s growth of 10%.
She also pointed out that increased fattening pig numbers are evidenced by higher throughputs at abattoirs, with year-to-date, Jan–Nov, clean pig kill up 2.4%.