Feed market update

AHDB Pork has issued its latest analysis of the global feed market. Over the last month both domestic and global wheat markets have recorded overall declines. UK feed wheat futures (Nov-17) declined by £3.45/t from 27 September to close at £138.00/t on 26 October.

The provisional Defra UK wheat production figure for 2017, released on 12 October is 15.2Mt, up 5.4% on the year. UK barley production in 2017 is provisionally estimated at 7.36Mt, up 10.6% on the year. AHDB’s first estimates of 2017/18 UK supply and demand forecast a tighter wheat balance this season, with the balance of availability and domestic consumption projected to be 14% lower year on year at 2.77Mt. The UK barley balance in 2017/18 is forecast at 2.55Mt, up 17% year on year.

The global oilseeds markets have been volatile over the last month with an overall decline in Paris rapeseed futures and a small increase for Chicago soyabean prices. Chicago soybeans (Nov-17) received a boost in mid-October due to the USDA lowering its forecast for the 2017 US soyabean yield to 3.33t/ha from 3.36t/ha in September.

Chinese export demand for US soyabeans has also been a supporting factor for prices. Additionally, unfavourable weather in Brazil and Argentina has continued to delay planting progress. UK delivered rapeseed prices have remained fairly constant over the past month with an ample supply of imported rapeseed from the Black Sea region fulfilling most of current demand.

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