The Netherlands-based Rabobank has published a report estimating the effect of the ongoing outbreak of PEDv on the US pig industry will result in a 9% fall in slaughterings in 2014 compared with 2013, with a 12 million head (11%) shortfall from affected producers, offset by an increase from producers which are not infected.
Increased slaughter weights should mean that pork production will only be down by 7% overall.
The impact of the disease is projected to peak in September, when slaughterings might be as much as 25% down year-on-year.
Following a fact-finding visit to the US, BPEX’s head of research and development, Derek Armstrong, is estimating the total impact of the disease in 2014 will be a year-on-year shortfall of seven to eight million slaughter pigs. This would be equivalent to a shortfall in slaughterings of about 7%, and a fall in overall pork production of about 3% for the year.
BPEX forecasts the impact on slaughterings will be much greater than this in the summer and autumn, as the pigs born during the peak of the disease over the winter reach the market. Also, the impact will continue to be felt in lower slaughterings through much of 2015, as further cases are likely next winter. Quantifying the impact in 2015 is difficult at this stage, as it will depend on how the disease spreads.
BPEX is keeping the situation in the US under review and will carry out further analysis of the likely impact of PEDv as more information becomes available. Information will be made available through the BPEX website and our its publications, Pig Market Weekly and Pig Market Trends.