Pig World
  • News
      • Animal Health
      • Breeding
      • Business
      • Environment
      • EU
      • Food Safety
      • Housing
      • Marketing
      • NPA
      • National Pig Awards
      • New Products
      • Nutrition
      • People
      • Pig Fair
      • Politics
      • Training & Education
      • Welfare
  • Features
    • Animal Health
    • Breeding
    • Environment
    • Farm Visits
    • Herd Recording
    • Housing
    • Marketing
    • Nutrition
    • Products
    • Training
  • Comment
    • AHDB Pork
    • Chris Fogden
    • Dennis Bridgeford
    • Peter Crichton
    • Red Robin
    • Veterinary View
    • Zoe Davies, NPA
  • Numbers
  • Pig Prices
  • Magazines
    • June 2025
    • 2025 Innovation supplement
    • May 2025
    • April 2025
    • March 2025
    • 2025 Buildings supplement
    • February 2025
    • 2025 Nutrition Supplement
    • January 2025
    • December 2024
    • November 2024
    • 2025 National Pig Awards supplement
    • October 2024
    • September 2024
    • August 2024
    • 2024 Pig Health supplement
    • July 2024
    • June 2024
    • 2024 Innovation supplement
    • 2024 Pig & Poultry Fair Guide
    • May 2024
    • April 2024
    • 2024 Buildings Supplement
    • March 2024
    • 2024 Pig Nutrition supplement
    • February 2024
    • January 2024
    • December 2023
    • November 2023
    • 2023 National Pig Awards supplement
    • October 2023
    • September 2023
    • Health Supplement
  • Suppliers
  • Jobs
    • Browse Jobs
    • Post a Job
    • Manage Jobs
  • Classified
  • Events
    • Pigs Tomorrow
    • National Pig Awards
Podcast
Pig WorldPig World
  • News
      • Animal Health
      • Breeding
      • Business
      • Environment
      • EU
      • Food Safety
      • Housing
      • Marketing
      • NPA
      • National Pig Awards
      • New Products
      • Nutrition
      • People
      • Pig Fair
      • Politics
      • Training & Education
      • Welfare
  • Features
    • Animal Health
    • Breeding
    • Environment
    • Farm Visits
    • Herd Recording
    • Housing
    • Marketing
    • Nutrition
    • Products
    • Training
  • Comment
    • AHDB Pork
    • Chris Fogden
    • Dennis Bridgeford
    • Peter Crichton
    • Red Robin
    • Veterinary View
    • Zoe Davies, NPA
  • Numbers
  • Pig Prices
  • Magazines
    1. June 2025
    2. 2025 Innovation supplement
    3. May 2025
    4. April 2025
    5. March 2025
    6. 2025 Buildings supplement
    7. February 2025
    8. 2025 Nutrition Supplement
    9. January 2025
    10. December 2024
    11. November 2024
    12. 2025 National Pig Awards supplement
    13. October 2024
    14. September 2024
    15. August 2024
    16. 2024 Pig Health supplement
    17. July 2024
    18. June 2024
    19. 2024 Innovation supplement
    20. 2024 Pig & Poultry Fair Guide
    21. May 2024
    22. April 2024
    23. 2024 Buildings Supplement
    24. March 2024
    25. 2024 Pig Nutrition supplement
    26. February 2024
    27. January 2024
    28. December 2023
    29. November 2023
    30. 2023 National Pig Awards supplement
    31. October 2023
    32. September 2023
    33. Health Supplement
    Featured

    June 2025 issue of Pig World now available

    June 4, 2025
    Recent

    June 2025 issue of Pig World now available

    June 4, 2025

    2025 Innovation supplement now available

    June 4, 2025

    May 2025 issue of Pig World now available

    May 1, 2025
  • Suppliers
  • Jobs
    • Browse Jobs
    • Post a Job
    • Manage Jobs
  • Classified
  • Events
    • Pigs Tomorrow
    • National Pig Awards
LinkedIn X (Twitter)
Pig World
Brexit

What are our future trading prospects after we leave the EU?

Alistair DriverBy Alistair DriverNovember 7, 20187 Mins Read
LinkedIn Twitter Facebook Email

Two inter-twined, but seemingly contradictory, narratives dominated an AHDB conference looking at UK agriculture’s export prospects. One was a tale of huge export growth opportunity, the other of unprecedented uncertainty with Brexit around the corner. Alistair Driver reports

GLOBAL PICTURE REMAINS POSITIVE
Despite various challenges around politics, changing consumer perceptions and animal disease, the long-term global outlook for meat is very positive, according to Gira’s Richard Brown. “We are in a growing meat market, which is terrific news,” he said.

Global meat consumption has been rising steadily over the past decade and that is set to continue.

Key trends include:

  • Global meat consumption is forecast to rise by 55 million tonnes, 17%, to reach 372mt between 2017 and 2027;
  • Pork consumption rose by 19% between 2007 and 2017 to reach 117mt and is predicted to rise by a further 11% to 130mt in 2027;
  • The biggest driver of growth in global meat sales, however, is poultry, forecast to rise by 25% to 148m t by 2027;
  • Most regions of the world will experience meat consumption growth, with North Asia, including China, leading the way at 17%. Strong growth is also forecast in South East Asia and North and South America.
  • Just about the only place where consumption is forecast to remain flat is the EU, highlighting why international trade is becoming so important to the UK meat sector;
  • The volume of meat traded globally is forecast to soar by 21% over the next decade, with the volume of pork traded set to reach 10.5mt in 2027, up 35% on 2017; and
  • Unsurprisingly, China, is forecast to be the biggest net meat importer in 2027, with South America and North America the biggest exporters, followed by the EU and Oceania.

This growth in demand is resulting in ‘quite substantially higher real prices for meat’, Mr Brown said.

He listed the positive drivers for growth, including global population and income growth and increased urbanisation, with social change contributing to greater demand for meat. Supply chain changes, including productivity gains supported by upscaling and technology, will increase the availability and affordability of meat, while improvements in the likes of meat marketing, food safety, shelf-life, quality, consistency and convenience will all help.

Mr Brown identified a number of potential ‘brakes’, too, including political and economic uncertainty and the rise of ASF. There are growing ‘social pressures’, too, such as consumer concerns over animal welfare, the environment and negative health implications associated with meat, resulting in a rise in vegetarianism and flexitarianism and driving meat alternatives.

“There will be a need to change businesses and for a huge communication exercise to explain the benefits of eating meat,” he said.

“But the fundamentals for meat around the world are unbelievably powerful and the drivers exceed the brakes.”

But he went into more detail on some of the uncertainties, too. What happens in China, as the world’s biggest producer and consumer of pork, will be ‘unbelievably important’ in shaping the pork market over the next few years, he said. China is undergoing a major agro-industrialisation programme to boost domestic production, although these plans could be hampered by its ‘major African swine fever problem’, potentially forcing it to import more.

But he warned that if China is successful in boosting its domestic output, the US ‘could be in for a shock’ if it expects to re-direct its extra pork there, while EU export plans could also be thwarted, resulting in a ‘lot of pork sloshing around’.

Turning to Brexit and the risk of a no deal, in particular, he said: “We are standing on a cliff edge. It is unbelievably serious. Nobody likes uncertainty and we have got it in dollops with food policy, farm policy and trade policy. Farmers and processors need to be very careful,” he said.

He also stressed the need, as the UK formulates a post-Brexit farm policy, to ensure farming is ‘not left behind’ the rest of the world where upscaling and intensification, with increasing use of technology and automation to boost productivity, is increasingly common.

Pork sector eyes further export growth
The UK pork sector is eyeing further export growth in China and other existing and new global markets after we leave the EU.

AHDB international market development director Phil Hadley updated the conference on recent UK export growth and AHDB’s work with the industry to facilitate it, including supporting Government on access negotiations, developing contacts, networks and market intelligence and accompanying exporters at international trade shows.

Among recent export successes, UK pork exports to China were worth £70 million
in 2017, while the recently signed Taiwan deal is expected to be worth an estimated £50m over five years. The first commercial shipments are set to leave imminently, after the first shipment was dispatched for a Ministerial launch.

But the EU remains by far the biggest market for UK agriculture and there was enormous concern expressed at the conference over the prospects of a ‘no deal’, which could result new tariffs, delays and added bureaucracy and costs for exporters.

“For the pigmeat sector, anything that stymies trade or adds costs will be a problem, but it is probably able to weather it a bit better than some of the other sectors,” Mr Hadley told Pig World.

But he stressed that it should be relatively straightforward to continue trading with non- EU countries, such as China, where the UK has bilateral agreements in place relating to specific products, after March 29, 2019.

“These deals will roll forward,” he said. “We will update the certificates and export health agreements to recognise an equivalent standard in the domestic legislation. This represents an administrative change, but no change in procedure.”

Third country exports will become increasingly important as global trade widens, he said. “It is about placing the right product in the right market at the right time for the right price to maximise the value of the whole pig.”

Future target destinations for pork exports include further growth in Asia, as well as Mexico and South America.

AHDB Pork chair Mike Sheldon said he was ‘optimistic’ about the opportunities for the British pig industry to secure a place in the world market. But he said, as a relatively small player on the global market, the focus should be on value, not volume.

“The world market is huge and growing,” he said. “It is about identifying where the best value is in the world for each piece of the carcase. There is an increasing opportunity for higher value products. Even if we are only a small part of those markets that has enormous potential benefits for us,” he said.

The British Pig Association is accredited by the Department for International Trade as a Trade Challenge Partner, working alongside it to promote export opportunities. BPA chief executive Marcus Bates said the association had been working with AHDB and others to come up with a coherent export strategy for UK agriculture, stressing the ‘massive potential’ for export growth.

He said there was also ‘a lot of potential for trade in Africa’ – the BPA will be visiting Nigeria in November. It has also been exploring the potential for pig genetics in India and the Indian Government has invited it there to make a presentation.

 

Share. LinkedIn Facebook Twitter Email
Previous ArticlePig & Poultry Fair wins national award
Next Article Bringing the industry and MPs together in Parliament
Alistair Driver

Editor Pig World, group editor Agronomist and Arable Farmer and Farm Contractor. National Pig Association webmaster. Former political editor at Farmers Guardian. Occasional media pundit. Brought up on a Leicestershire farm. Works from a shed in his Oxfordshire garden.

Read Similar Stories

Farming and rural bodies give ‘cautious welcome’ to better-than-expected Defra funding settlement

June 11, 2025

GB pig prices for week ending June 7, 2025 – SPP moves up for fourth successive week

June 11, 2025

China delays retaliatory investigation into EU pork products

June 11, 2025
Latest News

Pigs Tomorrow: The sustainability challenges and trade-offs

June 13, 2025

Pigs Tomorrow: Ever-increasing knowledge informs future of farrowing

June 12, 2025

Farming and rural bodies give ‘cautious welcome’ to better-than-expected Defra funding settlement

June 11, 2025
Sponsored Content

THE GATEKEEPER OF RESPIRATORY HEALTH – MYCOPLASMA HYOPNEUMONIAE (M.HYO)

April 30, 2024

Tackle the root cause of PWD with free diagnostic tests

March 1, 2024
Current Pig Industry jobs
  • Pig Stockperson – Ref 1752 Somerset

    • Somerset
    • Roadhogs Recruitment Ltd.
    • Full Time
  • Senior Piggery Stockpersons – Ref 1751 Western Australia

    • Western Australia
    • Roadhogs Recruitment Ltd.
    • Full Time
  • Senior-Level Pig Stockperson – Ref 1750 Hertfordshire

    • Hertfordshire
    • Roadhogs Recruitment Ltd.
    • Full Time
GETTING IN TOUCH
  • Advertise
  • Contact Us
  • Meet The Editors
  • About Us
  • Email Newsletters
  • Subscribe
  • Reuse permissions
OUR SOCIAL CHANNELS
  • Twitter
  • LinkedIn
PARTNER EVENTS
RELATED SITES
  • Farmers Weekly
  • Agronomist & Arable Farmer
  • Farm Contractor
  • National Pig Awards
  • Pigs Tomorrow
  • Poultry News
  • Privacy Policy
  • Cookies Policy
  • Terms and Conditions
© 2024 MA Agriculture Ltd, a Mark Allen Group company

Type above and press Enter to search. Press Esc to cancel.