SPP predicted to rise again, as recent blip attributed to heavier pigs in festive period

Last week’s surprise drop in the SPP was down to heavier pigs coming out of the festive period, according to Thames Valley Cambac, which is predicting that the pig price will rise again in the coming weeks. 

The SPP was down by more than a penny in the week ended January 8, dropping back to 200.2p/kg, following four successive weekly gains, amid tightening supplies domestically and a strengthening EU market.

TVC said investigations showed this was purely down to heavier/fatter pigs coming out of the three shorter festive weeks, leading to more being out of spec. “We believe the SPP should rise again this coming Wednesday and then hopefully be only heading in one direction given the shortages of pigs we are seeing,” TVC said in its latest weekly update.

“All input prices this week stood on, as did the EU clean pig price including the cull sow values. With regards to volume, we would have to say we have never been as short on contract numbers as we currently are. As most will know, this is due to numerous factors, but mainly because of the herd reductions and closures, coupled with the warmer weather we saw back in the summer causing infertility/production problems.

“Pulling pigs pre-Christmas has decimated supply post-Christmas, which is not such a bad thing as several processors are reporting the meat market is still awash with product. However, the next few weeks will set the tone for probably the year – if the EU volumes are down as far as reports would suggest, then it is expected that the EU price will rise.”

TVC is predicting that ‘vast volume reductions’ will push prices up as competition for supply intensifies, but warned this could lead to further factory closures.

Weaner and store markets are showing continuing positive signs – with overall numbers being tight, interest levels have grown, although the majority are contracted agreements. The spot market is extremely thin with regards to volume.

UK and European Prices (p/kg) w/c 15/01/23          Movement on last week

SPP                                          200.2                           -1.04

Tribune Spot Bacon                204.33                         n/c

European Av.                          173.16                         +0.46

Belgium                                   160.28                         +0.58

Denmark                                 139.68                         -3.12

France                                     202.55                         +3.13

Germany                                 177.6                           +0.65

Ireland                                     182.93                         +0.67

Holland                                    157.71                         -1.63

Spain                                       191.45                         +3.00

(Ref Weekly Tribune)