The global pork trade faces potentially significant disruption, after US president Donald Trump confirmed tariffs on three major US trading partners will commence on Tuesday.
A 25% import tax on goods from Canada and Mexico, alongside 10% on China, begin on Tuesday, with all three countries likely to retaliate.
What is more, Mr Trump has made it clear he has the EU in his sights and tariffs will ‘definitely happen’. “They don’t take our cars, they don’t take our farm products. They take almost nothing, and we take everything from the millions of cars, tremendous amounts of food and farm products,” the president told the BBC.
However, he believes a deal could be done with the UK. “UK is out of line. But I’m sure that one, I think that one, can be worked out, prime minister Starmer has been very nice. We’ve had a couple of meetings, we’ve had numerous phone calls, we’re getting along very well, and we’ll see whether or not we can balance out our budget with the European Union,” he said.
Nonetheless, the fallout from an new tariffs and subsequent trade wars are likely to have a widespread impact, regardless of which countries are directly involved.
A large proportion of pigmeat is traded globally, partly due to carcase balance. Where tariffs are in place, consumer prices are likely to rise and trade flows are likely to shift, but how this will play out along the supply chain is difficult to gauge.
Canadian pig farmers are reported to be ‘very concerned’. Manitoba, the largest pig producing province in the country, exports around 40% of its pork to the US, worth about $200 million in trade, according to CTV News.
“This is going to be a disaster to all farmers,” pork producer Ian Smith said. “More so to the hog industry, because we are big exporter to the U.S. in weanlings and feeder pigs.”
Another Canadian pig farmer Rick Préjet, also from Manitoba, said the tariffs ‘could have a very significant impact on what farmers and producers in Manitoba receive for their pigs that go to the US’, Yahoo News reports.
He acknowledged that it was still not known whether there will be a 25% tariff across the board, but said if there is a tariff on pork, the market will dictate who pays it.
“In other words, how badly does that Manitoba producer need to ship it, and how badly does the American producer want to buy it?” Mr Préjet said. “And where is that going to settle out? So that’s a huge unknown.”
Equally, if not more concerning, if tariffs are sustained and widespread, it could push up the costs, globally on key farm inputs, such as feed.
It is still too early to gauge the likely impact – with much depending on how far the US goes and the nature of retaliation from its trading partners – but the global pork sector is looking on nervously.