EU pig meat production is projected to fall by 1% per year in the decade to 2032, equating to 2.2 million tonnes over the whole period, according to the European Commission’s latest medium-term outlook.
The outlook projects that EU pig meat consumption will decrease by 0.4 % per year, from 32.4 kg per capita in 2022 to 31.1 kg in 2032, down 4% over the whole period.
Pig meat exports are expected to decline as Chinese production recovers, with China’s production capacity expected to recover sooner than initially expected, therefore drastically reducing China’s reliance on imports, despite further ASF outbreaks still occurring, .
As a result, while EU exports increased by 2.8 % per year in 2012-2022, they are projected to decrease by 3.2% per year over the next decade.
Pig meat prices are expected to remain ‘contained’ after the price spike in 2022. However, import demand outside China, continuing outbreaks of ASF in Asia and an adjusting domestic production could slow down the decrease in prices until 2025.
EU prices are then expected to remain at around €1.50/kg from 2025 until 2032.
Beef production is expected to fall, with EU gross beef production predicted to continue declining to 0.6 million tonnes (-9%) by 2032 driven by a decline in the cow herd of 2.8million head (-9.1%).
Contrary to the declining trends of recent years, EU sheep and goat meat production is expected to increase slightly (0.2% per year) until 2032 (up to 645,000 tonnes). Coupled income support, a tight global supply-demand situation and favourable prices for producers should support this trend.
You can view the full EU Agricultural Outlook HERE and AHDB’s summary for pork, beef and lamb HERE.