Pig World
  • News
      • Animal Health
      • Breeding
      • Business
      • Environment
      • EU
      • Food Safety
      • Housing
      • Marketing
      • NPA
      • National Pig Awards
      • New Products
      • Nutrition
      • People
      • Pig Fair
      • Politics
      • Training & Education
      • Welfare
  • Features
    • Animal Health
    • Breeding
    • Environment
    • Farm Visits
    • Herd Recording
    • Housing
    • Marketing
    • Nutrition
    • Products
    • Training
  • Comment
    • AHDB Pork
    • Chris Fogden
    • Dennis Bridgeford
    • Peter Crichton
    • Red Robin
    • Veterinary View
    • Zoe Davies, NPA
  • Numbers
  • Pig Prices
  • Magazines
    • September 2025
    • August 2025
    • 2025 Maximising Pig Health supplement
    • July 2025
    • June 2025
    • 2025 Innovation supplement
    • May 2025
    • April 2025
    • March 2025
    • 2025 Buildings supplement
    • February 2025
    • 2025 Nutrition Supplement
    • January 2025
    • December 2024
    • November 2024
    • 2025 National Pig Awards supplement
    • October 2024
    • September 2024
    • August 2024
    • 2024 Pig Health supplement
    • July 2024
    • June 2024
    • 2024 Innovation supplement
    • 2024 Pig & Poultry Fair Guide
    • May 2024
    • April 2024
    • 2024 Buildings Supplement
    • March 2024
    • 2024 Pig Nutrition supplement
    • February 2024
    • January 2024
    • December 2023
    • November 2023
    • 2023 National Pig Awards supplement
    • October 2023
    • September 2023
    • Health Supplement
  • Suppliers
  • Jobs
    • Browse Jobs
    • Post a Job
    • Manage Jobs
  • Classified
  • Events
    • Pigs Tomorrow
    • National Pig Awards
Podcast
Pig WorldPig World
  • News
      • Animal Health
      • Breeding
      • Business
      • Environment
      • EU
      • Food Safety
      • Housing
      • Marketing
      • NPA
      • National Pig Awards
      • New Products
      • Nutrition
      • People
      • Pig Fair
      • Politics
      • Training & Education
      • Welfare
  • Features
    • Animal Health
    • Breeding
    • Environment
    • Farm Visits
    • Herd Recording
    • Housing
    • Marketing
    • Nutrition
    • Products
    • Training
  • Comment
    • AHDB Pork
    • Chris Fogden
    • Dennis Bridgeford
    • Peter Crichton
    • Red Robin
    • Veterinary View
    • Zoe Davies, NPA
  • Numbers
  • Pig Prices
  • Magazines
    1. September 2025
    2. August 2025
    3. 2025 Maximising Pig Health supplement
    4. July 2025
    5. June 2025
    6. 2025 Innovation supplement
    7. May 2025
    8. April 2025
    9. March 2025
    10. 2025 Buildings supplement
    11. February 2025
    12. 2025 Nutrition Supplement
    13. January 2025
    14. December 2024
    15. November 2024
    16. 2025 National Pig Awards supplement
    17. October 2024
    18. September 2024
    19. August 2024
    20. 2024 Pig Health supplement
    21. July 2024
    22. June 2024
    23. 2024 Innovation supplement
    24. 2024 Pig & Poultry Fair Guide
    25. May 2024
    26. April 2024
    27. 2024 Buildings Supplement
    28. March 2024
    29. 2024 Pig Nutrition supplement
    30. February 2024
    31. January 2024
    32. December 2023
    33. November 2023
    34. 2023 National Pig Awards supplement
    35. October 2023
    36. September 2023
    37. Health Supplement
    Featured

    September 2025 issue of Pig World now available

    September 1, 2025
    Recent

    September 2025 issue of Pig World now available

    September 1, 2025

    August 2025 issue of Pig World now available

    August 1, 2025

    2025 Maximising Pig Health supplement now available

    August 1, 2025
  • Suppliers
  • Jobs
    • Browse Jobs
    • Post a Job
    • Manage Jobs
  • Classified
  • Events
    • Pigs Tomorrow
    • National Pig Awards
LinkedIn X (Twitter)
Pig World
African swine fever

China’s pig herd will not recover until 2025 – Rabobank

Alistair DriverBy Alistair DriverNovember 8, 20193 Mins Read
LinkedIn Twitter Facebook Email

China’s pig herd will take ‘over five years’ to recover from the damage wreaked by African swine fever (ASF), according to Rabobank.

However, when the herd does recover it is likely to be a very different market, with pork shortages and higher prices forcing a significant and permanent shift away from pork consumption in China.

When China’ first case of ASF was reported in August 2018, its pig herd stood at over 430m, accounting for half the world’s pigs. Such has been the scale of the devastation that the herd now stands at under 200m pigs.

Chinese Government and industry officials have spoken optimistically recently about a recovery in the pig herd, driven by growth in large pig herds. Yang Zhenhai, from China’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, predicted the herd would ‘bottom out’ this year and could return to normal levels in 2020.

But Rabobank analysts are forecasting a much longer road to recovery, given the scale of the devastation so far. Rabobank has predicted that ASF will kill a quarter of the word’s pig population.

The focus next year and in 2021 will be on small-scale restocking and large-scale importing before hog production increases in the years to 2025, when the market should rebalance and prices stabilise, they predict. However, even then the total herd is unlikely to return to the 2018 peak, analysts predict.

The report, China’s Recovery from African Swine Fever, Rebuilding, Relocating and Restructuring, says China will be unable to import enough pork to make up for the production shortfall in the coming years, causing high global prices.

The change in the market will also prompt consumers to change habits. Rabobank predicts China’s population will consume more chilled, frozen and processed meat – rather than the preferred fresh warm pork – while poultry consumption will rise to make up some 30% of the market by 2025.

As a result of ASF, China’s pork market will be changed forever, with pork’s share of the market declining from the recent 63% to 53%, the bank’s analysts forecast.

Chenjun Pan, animal protein senior analyst at Rabobank, said: “Everybody recognises that China’s pig population has been decimated but it isn’t fully appreciated that the market will take years – probably half a decade – to rebalance due to the huge restocking required and the fact that global imports simply cannot make up the shortfall.

“The recovery will likely start taking shape next year but we’re then looking at years of production increases to get the market back on track given the herd has roughly halved in less than 18 months.

“The key point is that even when the market does rebalance, it’s going to be a different meat environment in China. Pork will remain the country’s protein of choice but it will command a much smaller share of consumption as younger consumers lead the charge into poultry. For China, and the global market, this will be the new normal.”

Share. LinkedIn Facebook Twitter Email
Previous ArticleAustralia deports travellers over ASF risk as tests show half of seized products are infected
Next Article ASF suspected in Indonesia, according to reports
Alistair Driver

Editor Pig World, group editor Agronomist and Arable Farmer and Farm Contractor. National Pig Association webmaster. Former political editor at Farmers Guardian. Occasional media pundit. Brought up on a Leicestershire farm. Works from a shed in his Oxfordshire garden.

Read Similar Stories

Wildlife Trusts report ‘lacks context and hard evidence of pig sector environmental damage’ – NPA chief exec

September 2, 2025

Flood of pig building inquiries ‘tangible evidence of farmers’ confidence in the future’

September 2, 2025

Who has gone the extra mile? Last chance to nominate 2025 Chris Brant Award winner

September 2, 2025
Latest News

Spotlight on UK pig sector’s biggest threat

September 2, 2025

African swine fever – a truly global disease

September 2, 2025

Wildlife Trusts report ‘lacks context and hard evidence of pig sector environmental damage’ – NPA chief exec

September 2, 2025
Sponsored Content

Enhancing Weaned Pig Health and Performance with Zinc and Iron

August 1, 2025

THE GATEKEEPER OF RESPIRATORY HEALTH – MYCOPLASMA HYOPNEUMONIAE (M.HYO)

April 30, 2024
Current Pig Industry jobs
  • Senior Pig Stockperson – Ref 1772 Aberdeenshire

    • Aberdeenshire
    • Roadhogs Recruitment Ltd.
    • Full Time
  • Senior Pig Stockperson – Ref 1771 Australia

    • Queensland, Australia
    • Roadhogs Recruitment Ltd.
    • Full Time
  • Pig Stockperson – Ref 1752 Somerset

    • Somerset
    • Roadhogs Recruitment Ltd.
    • Full Time
GETTING IN TOUCH
  • Advertise
  • Contact Us
  • Meet The Editors
  • About Us
  • Email Newsletters
  • Subscribe
  • Reuse permissions
OUR SOCIAL CHANNELS
  • Twitter
  • LinkedIn
PARTNER EVENTS
RELATED SITES
  • Farmers Weekly
  • Agronomist & Arable Farmer
  • Farm Contractor
  • National Pig Awards
  • Pigs Tomorrow
  • Poultry News
  • Weekly Tribune
  • Privacy Policy
  • Cookies Policy
  • Terms and Conditions
© 2024 MA Agriculture Ltd, a Mark Allen Group company

Type above and press Enter to search. Press Esc to cancel.