EU pig meat production is expected to decrease by 5% in 2022, on the back of high input prices and the disruption caused by African swine fever, according to the latest European Commission red meat forecast.Â
It predicts that input prices will likely remain high through 2023 and combined with the continued impact of ASF, this will result in a further decrease in pork production 0.7% in 2023.
Domestic demand is estimated to decrease by 1.9% to average 32kg per capita in 2022 and expected to stabilise at this level for 2023, AHDB’s Charlotte Forkes-Rees said.
Exports are estimated to decrease by 17% in 2022, and a further 3% in 2023 largely due to China reducing EU imports back to levels seen in 2017/2018, prior to its ASF outbreak. EU imports from the UK have not yet recovered to pre-Brexit levels – however overall imports to the EU are still expected to increase by 27% in 2022, and 17% in 2023.
EU Beef production is expected to decline by 0.6% for the remainder of 2022 and then stabilise in 2023.