AHDB has appointed London Economics to undertake an updated economic impact assessment of a potential African swine fever (ASF) outbreak in Great Britain.
The assessment is intended to strengthen the pig industry’s preparedness and provide an evidence base for future engagement with the government, industry stakeholders and trading partners.
London Economics is one of Europe’s leading specialist economics consultancies and the project will be led by John Curnow, former director of analysis and chief economist at Defra, alongside ASF specialist Dr Chris Netherton from the Pirbright Institute.
It will build on previous work completed in 2018 and 2020 while reflecting the changing disease and trade landscape, including lessons emerging from Spain’s recent experience of ASF.
It will assess the economic impact of an ASF outbreak across the supply chain under a range of scenarios, ranging from incidents confined to feral wild boar through to more widespread outbreaks affecting pig populations across multiple regions.
Key areas of work will include:
- Assessing the impact of an ASF outbreak where regionalisation agreements are not in place
- Comparing outcomes where regionalisation agreements are recognised by trading partners
- Evaluating the differing impacts of outbreaks involving feral wild boar and domestic pigs
- Examining the feasibility, requirements and practical implications of compartmentalisation
- Assessing how compartmentalisation could change the economic impact of an outbreak.
London Economics will develop a scenario-based economic model drawing together production, trade and farm business data with stakeholder engagement across the supply chain.
The project will also map the British pig supply chain to better understand how the impacts of an outbreak could be felt by producers, processors, exporters and other businesses connected to the sector.
Particular attention will be given to trade impacts, market access, regional differences, costs associated with disease control measures, and the potential consequences for producer incomes and sector resilience.
Spanish lessons
A key element of the work will be an AHDB-led industry study visit to Spain in early 2027, where project partners will explore how Spanish authorities and industry responded to ASF, including disease management, regionalisation, trade impacts and recovery measures. Insights from the visit will be used to validate and refine the economic modelling.
The project officially started in September 2026 and the final report is to be delivered in the first quarter of 2027.