Pig World
  • News
      • Animal Health
      • Breeding
      • Business
      • Environment
      • EU
      • Food Safety
      • Housing
      • Marketing
      • NPA
      • National Pig Awards
      • New Products
      • Nutrition
      • People
      • Pig Fair
      • Politics
      • Training & Education
      • Welfare
  • Features
    • Animal Health
    • Breeding
    • Environment
    • Farm Visits
    • Herd Recording
    • Housing
    • Marketing
    • Nutrition
    • Products
    • Training
  • Comment
    • AHDB Pork
    • Chris Fogden
    • Dennis Bridgeford
    • Peter Crichton
    • Red Robin
    • Veterinary View
    • Zoe Davies, NPA
  • Numbers
  • Pig Prices
  • Magazines
    • October 2025
    • September 2025
    • August 2025
    • 2025 Maximising Pig Health supplement
    • July 2025
    • June 2025
    • 2025 Innovation supplement
    • May 2025
    • April 2025
    • March 2025
    • 2025 Buildings supplement
    • February 2025
    • 2025 Nutrition Supplement
    • January 2025
    • December 2024
    • November 2024
    • 2025 National Pig Awards supplement
    • October 2024
    • September 2024
    • August 2024
    • 2024 Pig Health supplement
    • July 2024
    • June 2024
    • 2024 Innovation supplement
    • 2024 Pig & Poultry Fair Guide
    • May 2024
    • April 2024
    • 2024 Buildings Supplement
    • March 2024
    • 2024 Pig Nutrition supplement
    • February 2024
    • January 2024
    • December 2023
    • November 2023
    • 2023 National Pig Awards supplement
    • October 2023
    • September 2023
    • Health Supplement
  • Suppliers
  • Jobs
    • Browse Jobs
    • Post a Job
    • Manage Jobs
  • Classified
  • Events
    • Pigs Tomorrow
    • National Pig Awards
Subscribe
Pig WorldPig World
  • News
      • Animal Health
      • Breeding
      • Business
      • Environment
      • EU
      • Food Safety
      • Housing
      • Marketing
      • NPA
      • National Pig Awards
      • New Products
      • Nutrition
      • People
      • Pig Fair
      • Politics
      • Training & Education
      • Welfare
  • Features
    • Animal Health
    • Breeding
    • Environment
    • Farm Visits
    • Herd Recording
    • Housing
    • Marketing
    • Nutrition
    • Products
    • Training
  • Comment
    • AHDB Pork
    • Chris Fogden
    • Dennis Bridgeford
    • Peter Crichton
    • Red Robin
    • Veterinary View
    • Zoe Davies, NPA
  • Numbers
  • Pig Prices
  • Magazines
    1. October 2025
    2. September 2025
    3. August 2025
    4. 2025 Maximising Pig Health supplement
    5. July 2025
    6. June 2025
    7. 2025 Innovation supplement
    8. May 2025
    9. April 2025
    10. March 2025
    11. 2025 Buildings supplement
    12. February 2025
    13. 2025 Nutrition Supplement
    14. January 2025
    15. December 2024
    16. November 2024
    17. 2025 National Pig Awards supplement
    18. October 2024
    19. September 2024
    20. August 2024
    21. 2024 Pig Health supplement
    22. July 2024
    23. June 2024
    24. 2024 Innovation supplement
    25. 2024 Pig & Poultry Fair Guide
    26. May 2024
    27. April 2024
    28. 2024 Buildings Supplement
    29. March 2024
    30. 2024 Pig Nutrition supplement
    31. February 2024
    32. January 2024
    33. December 2023
    34. November 2023
    35. 2023 National Pig Awards supplement
    36. October 2023
    37. September 2023
    38. Health Supplement
    Featured

    October 2025 issue of Pig World now available

    October 2, 2025
    Recent

    October 2025 issue of Pig World now available

    October 2, 2025

    September 2025 issue of Pig World now available

    September 1, 2025

    August 2025 issue of Pig World now available

    August 1, 2025
  • Suppliers
  • Jobs
    • Browse Jobs
    • Post a Job
    • Manage Jobs
  • Classified
  • Events
    • Pigs Tomorrow
    • National Pig Awards
LinkedIn X (Twitter)
Pig World
African swine fever

China’s pig herd forecast to halve by end of 2019

Alistair DriverBy Alistair DriverAugust 7, 20192 Mins Read
LinkedIn Twitter Facebook Email

China’s pig herd could halve by the end of this year, as ASF takes a massive toll on the country’s pig production, analysts at Rabobank are predicting.

In its latest quarterly global pork report, Rabobank estimates that the Chinese herd is already 40% down year-on-year, due to the huge number of pigs slaughtered in the first six months. Pork production in China is expected to fall by 25% this year, and a further 15% in 2020.

Official Chinese figures show breeding herd numbers were nearly 27% year-on- year at the end of June, and the overall herd 26% down.

But herd losses in some regions are believed to be as high as 40-60%, with overall losses estimated at 40%, Rabobank said. New cases are still being regularly reported.

Large inventories have been preventing significant price rises, but that is changing, with live pig prices 15% up in July and 40% higher year-on-year, and pork prices 20% up in July compared with June. Chinese pork imports rose 62% in May and were 20% up in the first five months of the year.

ASF is also spreading rapidly in Vietnam, where production could be 20% down in 2019, as well as Cambodia and Laos and has been detected in North Korea.

“The unprecedented supply loss in China has altered global trade flows and will continue to do so,” Rabobank said.

For example, EU pork exports to China were up 41% year-on-year in the first five months of 2019. However, ASF is stifling expansion in Eastern Europe, it added.

THE CHINA EFFECT

  • EU fresh and frozen pork exports to China were up 88% year-on-year in May, to 96,500 tonnes, accounting for 44% of EU exports;
  • Value almost trebled, as average prices rose from €1.48/kg last May to €2.09/kg;
  • UK pork shipments to China more than doubled year-on-year in May at 7,200t; and
  • Overall UK fresh/frozen pork shipments were up 31% year-on-year, at 21,200t, the highest figure on record.
Share. LinkedIn Facebook Twitter Email
Previous ArticleJapanese police arrest student for smuggling ASF-infected pork into Japan
Next Article ‘We want to inspire people – it’s about embedding good biosecurity every time’
Alistair Driver

Editor Pig World, group editor Agronomist and Arable Farmer and Farm Contractor. National Pig Association webmaster. Former political editor at Farmers Guardian. Occasional media pundit. Brought up on a Leicestershire farm. Works from a shed in his Oxfordshire garden.

Read Similar Stories

Pilgrim’s Europe reports big increase in profits

October 2, 2025

20t of illegal meat seized at Dover in September, despite funding and staff cuts

October 2, 2025

Last chance to vote for NPA Allied Industry Member of the Year

October 2, 2025
Latest News

Pilgrim’s Europe reports big increase in profits

October 2, 2025

20t of illegal meat seized at Dover in September, despite funding and staff cuts

October 2, 2025

Last chance to vote for NPA Allied Industry Member of the Year

October 2, 2025
Sponsored Content

All Vaccines Are Not Equal

September 15, 2025

Enhancing Weaned Pig Health and Performance with Zinc and Iron

August 1, 2025
Current Pig Industry jobs
  • Pig Stockperson – Ref 1783 Shropshire

    • Shropshire
    • Roadhogs Recruitment Ltd.
    • Full Time
  • Pig Stock Technician – Ref 1782 Yorkshire

    • North Yorkshire
    • Roadhogs Recruitment Ltd.
    • Full Time
  • Pig Stockperson – Ref 1781 Norfolk

    • Norfolk
    • Roadhogs Recruitment Ltd.
    • Full Time
GETTING IN TOUCH
  • Advertise
  • Contact Us
  • Meet The Editors
  • About Us
  • Email Newsletters
  • Subscribe
  • Reuse permissions
OUR SOCIAL CHANNELS
  • Twitter
  • LinkedIn
PARTNER EVENTS
RELATED SITES
  • Farmers Weekly
  • Agronomist & Arable Farmer
  • Farm Contractor
  • National Pig Awards
  • Pigs Tomorrow
  • Poultry News
  • Weekly Tribune
  • Privacy Policy
  • Cookies Policy
  • Terms and Conditions
© 2024 MA Agriculture Ltd, a Mark Allen Group company

Type above and press Enter to search. Press Esc to cancel.