Record crop output forecast in the US

The latest crop production estimates issued by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) predict a record 2014 harvest in the US, although not by as much as many analysts were expecting.

Based on the department’s new World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), the all-wheat supply forecast for August is up about 2% on the equivalent July figures while the conclusion on soya is that increased plantings and yields will take the crop into “record setting” territory.

USDA chief economist, Joe Glauber, said the overall crop production estimate, while on target for a record total, was “maybe lower than some were anticipating”. The big question from now on was whether or not crop yields would continue to “creep up” ahead of harvest.  That, he concluded, was “certainly possible” potentially producing a final all-crops increase of about 1% on 2013.

Commenting specifically on soya, he said that if the latest estimates proved accurate they would deliver “record highs for planted acreage, harvested acreage, yields and production”.

The same monthly report raised the world wheat production estimate for 2014/15 by 10.9m tons to a record 716.1m. This included increased forecasts for Russia, up 6m/t; China, up 2m/t and Ukraine, up 1m/t.

The global wheat consumption forecast was also increased, rising by 6.9m/t. This was due mainly to “increased prospects for wheat feeding” with the biggest feeding increase being “for the EU” where the estimated increase was put at 2.5m/t.

USDA report 

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