A 30% increase in pork imports by China in 2016 is forecast in a new report from Rabobank with the EU, US and Canada seen as being “well-positioned” to meet the rising demand.
“China plays an increasingly important role in the global pork market,” said Rabobank’s senior animal protein analyst, Chenjun Pan, adding that China needs to increase imports to cover its supply gap in 2016.
“In total, we expect China to increase pork imports by 30% with the EU, US and Canada being well-positioned to increase exports to China given their availability of product and the adaption of production systems in response to China’s ractopamine-free policy.”
Looking beyond 2016, the bank believes China will “likely” maintain its level of imports, even when local production recovers in 2017.
“We hold the view that local users of imported pork will continue to rely on imported pork due to its consistent quality and lower price, compared with local production,” said Rabobank, whose new report is called What’s Happening in China’s Pork Market.
“Leading pork processors and packers are already responding to this significant new trade opportunity, by adjusting production systems and taking advantage of current currency dynamics.
“Competition to export to China is expected to grow as production expands and demand remains relatively stable. This means exporters will need to keep improving their productivity and investing in trade partnerships that can help secure their future access to the Chinese market.”